Research On The Changing Trend And Influencing Factors Of RMB International Payment Share In The Process Of Internationalization

After the financial crisis in 2008,the international monetary pattern has been constantly changing.With the continuous improvement of China's global economic status,the RMB gradually develops towards the international currency according to the demand.RMB internationalization is conducive to maintaining the stability of the international monetary system and helping Chinese enterprises avoid trade and investment risks.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the trend and influencing factors of RMB internationalization.RMB global payment share represents RMB's performance of pricing and settlement functions,and is also the basis for investment transactions and reserve currency functions.Studying the change trend of RMB global payment share can provide ideas for further promoting RMB's internationalization.This paper studies the trend and influencing factors of RMB global payment share by using the methods of theoretical and empirical analysis,quantitative and qualitative analysis.The main research ideas are as follows: first,the paper selects the data from the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2020,makes a descriptive analysis on the trend of RMB global payment share,and describes the fluctuation characteristics of the share through GARCH and EGARCH analysis.Secondly,in the research of influencing factors,this paper constructs a multiple linear regression model,adds virtual variables,and analyzes the quantitative and qualitative factors that affect the change of RMB global payment share.Thirdly,in order to further study the dynamic relationship between RMB international payment share and other explanatory variables,and to study the impact of various factors in different periods,this paper constructs VAR model,and further studies the quantitative influencing factors through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.Finally,based on the results of the study,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to adapt to the process of RMB internationalization.The main conclusions are as follows: first,the monthly change of RMB international payment share is gentle,and the change has certain clustering characteristics.Secondly,the effects of GDP,trade scale,cross-border capital flow,exchange rate and price level on the share of international payment of RMB exist,and the response is relatively strong in the short term,which is basically released in the 10-month lag period.In terms of contribution,the change of RMB's share of international payment in the lag period is mainly affected by its own situation,followed by the economic scale and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.Third,news about China's trade friction play a negative role to enhance RMB global payment share.News of cooperation and easing of trade promote the increase of RMB global payment share.