Brief Analysis Of The City Commercial Bank's Credit Risk Management

The CBRC issued the "China's Banking Sector to Implement the New Capital Accord Guidance" which marked the official start of the implementation of "BaselⅡ" project on February 28,2007. It also opened prelude of the china banking regulatory system to the international standards. The new requirement of China's banking regulatory system was to establish its own risk management system. Some large commercial banks began to use the IRB approach, the internal market risk measurement models and other advanced management method. Computer network system and information management technology used in the risk management were also paid an increasing attention. Especially in recent years, major commercial banks began to constantly develop, improve the credit risk measurement system, and had made great achievements in quantifying the credit risk and rating methodologies.In the perspective of city commercial banks, and the root of Basel II, the paper focuses on credit risk management. From the origin of the risk and on the basis of a large number of documents reading, systematic review of the research field of research and the main theoretical foundation of this article are conducted. Combining with the characteristics of city commercial banks, this paper attempts to construct a reasonable credit risk measurement model. With a large number of advanced foreign experiences, the author believes that the logistic regression model can be applied to measure credit risk much better. Because Logistic regression model requires more samples, the paper has selected one hundred and sixty enterprises which have loaned from Chongqing bank, in which sixty four enterprises default, the non-breaching parties include ninety six enterprises. The range of these samples includes a variety of industries, with the universality of the study requirements. After data analysis, the correct rate of the model is eighty five percent overall, with a more accurate prediction.Based on the results, the paper offers constructive comments for the credit risk management of urban commercial banks. The author believes that building a scientific credit rating system, establishing an accurate database of credit risk management, training personnel on credit risk management are crucial for city commercial bank. Using scientific ways to quantify the credit risk management can help improve the city commercial bank risk management.