An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Income Uncertainty Of Urban Residents In Central And Western China On Their Consumption

At present,in order to develop the economy,the key to enhancing the consumption demand of the residents is to change the way of economic development,from investment to expanding consumption,to rely on consumption to stimulate economic growth,so as to improve the system and mechanism of consumption and tap the consumption potential of the residents.There is an obvious phenomenon of high savings among residents in China,and the overall consumption tendency of residents is still low,especially in the underdeveloped areas.Starting from the income uncertainty,this paper takes urban residents in the central and western regions as the research object,and deeply explores the impact of various types of income uncertainty on residents' consumption.On the basis of summarizing the literature,the paper carries out the research ideas of basic theory-Influence Mechanism-statistical description-Empirical Analysis-policy recommendations.First of all,in the induction and analysis of domestic and foreign literature,scholars' research deficiencies and the research objectives of this paper are put forward;secondly,according to the theory of relevant consumption function under the uncertain conditions,the theoretical basis for the research of this paper is laid;thirdly,the impact mechanism of income uncertainty on residents' consumption is analyzed,and basic research hypotheses are put forward;fourthly,income uncertainty and residence of urban residents are analyzed.Finally,the paper selects the actual panel-data of urban residents in central and Western China from 2006 to 2017,establishes a model to verify the impact of income uncertainty on the consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents,and analyzes the impact of asymmetry;at the same time,it establishes a dynamic spatial Dubin model to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of income uncertainty on residents' consumption levels and consumption structure.The results of empirical research show that: the uncertainty of urban residents' income have an asymmetric effect on the consumption level and consumption structure of the residents,specifically the uncertainty of operating income has an asymmetric effect on the consumption level of urban residents,and the uncertainty of transfer income the living consumption of urban residents has an asymmetric effect;the uncertainty of property income has an asymmetric effect on the developmental consumption of urban residents;at the same time,in the spatial model results of the impact of income uncertainty on the consumption level and consumption structure of residents,it is found that the impact coefficients of various income uncertainties are all positive,not to say that various income uncertainties promote residents' consumption.Due to the direction of income uncertainty,when the income uncertainty is positive,it indicates that the actual income of urban residents when it is higher than the expected income,and there is an unexpected increase,that is,the positive income uncertainty promotes the consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents.On the contrary,the negative income uncertainty suppresses the consumption level and consumption structure of residents,and the Space spillover effect of the impact shows that the various income uncertainties of urban residents in neighboring areas consumption structure and consumption levels affect people are the same relationship to fluctuations.In this regard,based on the empirical results analysis,policy recommendations are proposed,by changing the income uncertainty of urban residents in the central and western regions,to provide a basis for decision-making to improve the level of residents 'consumption and promote the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.