The Empirical Study Of Influence Of Income And Consumption Uncertainty On Xinjiang Rural Residents Consumption

With the transition of China's economic system,economic growth excessively depends on investment and exports, the contribution of consumption is at a low level At the same time, The rapid development of economy make production of main consumer goods in excess. At this point, It is urgent to stimulate resident consumption and expand domestic demand.The article takes Xinjiang as the research object, firstly, compared with urban residents, consumption market of rural residents has great potential for development. Secondly, Analyzing the reason of insufficient consumption of the rural residents,I found: in addition to income factors,income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty also affect the expenditure of rural residents, Making the consumption demand of rural residents in Xinjiang insufficient.This paper first reviews the theory of consumption, Introducing in details the deterministic consumption theory and uncertainty theory of consumption, which provides theoretical basis for empirical research; summarizing and reviewing the existing research literature, identifying deficiencies; clearing the concept and classification of uncertainty, summarizing method of measuring uncertainty. Secondly, It is the analysis of the status of consumption of rural residents in Xinjiang, which shows that rural residents in Xinjiang consumption is insufficient and rural residents are faced with income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty; to measure and analyze the uncertainty; to test correlation between uncertainty and consumption variables, preparing for variables selection of empirical research. In the part of empirical research, Three methods are used to measure the uncertainty and income uncertainty of the whole rural residents in Xinjiang, using two methods to measure consumption uncertainty and income uncertainty of rural residents in the area of the southern and Northern Xinjiang,using panel data modeling process, Analyzing empirically the impact of income uncertainty and consumption uncertainty on the consumption of rural residents in Xinjiang, I find that rural residents income, consumption uncertainty and income uncertainty have significant influence on the consumption of rural residents in Xinjiang. Among them, income is the main factor affecting the consumption of rural residents; and consumption expenditure of rural residents is not only affected by the income uncertainty, but also by uncertainty from the consumption; Both are positively related to the consumption of rural residents in Xinjiang; The latter's impact is greater than the former; influence of consumption uncertainty and the uncertainty of income on consumption of rural residents in the southern and Northern Xinjiang exist significant differences. Finally, according to the empirical research conclusion, putting forward to policy recommendations: promoting the reform of the rural residents' income mechanism, increasing the income of rural residents; To ensure that the income uncertainty of rural residents in Xinjiang face is positive; To strengthen consumption uncertainty's attention, Shifting unexpected consumption to stable and durable consumer spending; Balancing the development of the northern and southern regions of Xinjiang.