The Crowding-out Effect Of China’s Exports From The Perspective Of Value-added Trade

Since 1990 s,global value chains have been formed and developed continuously.The emergence of global value chains has put forward new requirements for international trade accounting methods.The current international trade accounting method is based on the total value of the products of origin statistics,assuming that the entire production process of products does not cross the border,only completed by one country,and all inputs are from domestic sources,but today’s international division of labor obviously can not meet such assumptions;and value added truly records the trade flows among the economies participating in the global value chain.The situation objectively and accurately reflects the volume of import and export trade,that is,the true value of trade.Therefore,in recent years,it has been gradually valued by various countries and scholars.Since China plays an indispensable role in the global value chain,it is particularly important to use value-added trade,i.e.real value,to measure trade scale and trade relations with other countries.On the other hand,after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization,its export volume has increased dramatically.Made in China has spread all over the world,and other countries are inevitably under pressure from China.At present,scholars mostly focus on Asian countries and regions.However,with the development of economic globalization and global value chains,more and more countries join the global market and compete directly or indirectly for Chinese goods.The influence of Chinese exports has spread to countries and regions outside Asia.Based on this,this paper extends the research object to eight emerging market countries,including Asia(India,Indonesia),Latin America(Mexico,Brazil)and Europe(Hungary,Poland,Russia,Turkey).It examines the impact of China’s exports on these countries from the perspective of value added,i.e.real value,and verifies whether China has an export "crowding-out effect" on them.Using WIOD(2016)world input-output table and value-added trade decomposition framework proposed by Wang et al.(2017),this paper calculates the real trade value between China and the eight emerging market countries from 2000 to 2014,grasps the changes of export share between China and eight emerging market countries in the past 15 years,and preliminarily determines whether China’s exports squeeze out the exports of other countries.Then,based on the results of value-added trade accounting,this paper constructs an export demonstrative comparative advantage index(RCA index)based on value-added trade,and divides it into six major industries to analyze the export comparative advantage and international competitiveness of China and eight other emerging market countries respectively.In order to comprehensively analyze the export trade relationship between China and other countries,for empirical analysis,this paper constructs anempirical model of trade gravity,using panel data of export value added of China and eight emerging market countries to the remaining 33 countries in WIOD from 2000 to 2014,and introducing control variables such as real per capita income gap,technological level and industrial structure similarity to make empirical regression.In addition,this paper also joins the country heterogeneity regression and time-division regression to test the impact of the host country’s economic development level and the financial crisis on China’s export crowding-out effect.Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions: 1)There is no crowding-out effect of China’s exports to the other eight emerging market countries,on the contrary,it has a certain driving effect;2)In the analysis of country heterogeneity,whether the host country is developed or developing country,China’s exports to other emerging market countries have a significant driving effect,but China’s exports are in the same situation.The driving effect of developing countries is stronger than that of developed countries;3)In the time-sharing analysis,the positive effect of China’s exports on the exports of eight emerging market countries has not been affected by the financial crisis.Finally,according to the conclusions drawn,this paper puts forward appropriate policy recommendations from the aspects of consolidating consensus on cooperation,vigorously developing high-tech industries,expanding imports to emerging market countries,and innovating the content and mode of trade cooperation.