A Research On Trade Potential And Influencing Factors Of China And Central Asia And South Asia

The two regions of Central Asia and South Asia are important parts of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”,which are the key areas of China's opening up to the outside world in the southwest and northwest.In recent years,the scale of trade between China and the two regions of Central Asia and South Asia has shown a clear upward trend.However,regional political disputes and poor infrastructure remain a series of obstacles.This paper makes a study on bilateral trade between China and Central Asia,China and South Asia and puts forward reasonable suggestions based on the research results,it has certain practical significance.This paper analyzes the trade opportunities between China and Central Asia and South Asia from a qualitative perspective.This paper first summarizes the trade development of China and Central Asia,China and South Asia since the 21 st century,and introduces the index to analyze the trade scale and trade structure between China and Central Asia and South Asia from the total amount and the industrial level.Finally,this paper constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model to explore the trade efficiency and trade potential of China and Central Asian countries,China and South Asian countries,as well as its influencing factors from a quantitative analysis point of view.The results show that the export trade efficiency and total trade efficiency of China and Central Asia and South Asia are showing an upward trend,but the overall is relatively low.China and South Asia have more trade potential and bilateral trade expansion space,China and Central Asia have more export expansion space.The regression results show that the determinants of trade potential are GDP per capita,population,geographical distance,common border and whether the trading country is a landlocked country.Trade inefficiency can be effectively influenced by World Trade Organization,infrastructure,trade costs,and institutional distances.Finally,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward in the light of the conclusion of this paper.