Research On Trade Potential Between China And South Asia

In recent years,due to geographical advantages,geopolitical status of the rising,coupled with rapid regional economic growth and other reasons,South Asia has been the world’s attention.Since the beginning of 2016,South Asia’s economic performance as a whole is still dazzling,in the context of the global economic slowdown has become one of the fastest growing areas of the world economy is expected to reach its economic growth rate of about 6%.Since 2013,with the " The Belt and Road " initiative proposed and implemented,China and South Asia’s economic and trade cooperation has become China’s opening to the west of an important part of the development strategy.Therefore,it is very meaningful to strengthen the research on the structure,potential and related problems of bilateral trade development between China and South Asia.In this paper,the study of bilateral trade between China and South Asia found that China and South Asia has been the existence of trade imbalances.The specific situation is that China is in the South Asian countries in the trade surplus state,and the difference has increased year by year trend.Based on the analysis of the status quo of bilateral trade between China and South Asian countries,SITC divides trade products into ten categories,analyzes China’s foreign trade structure,South Asian foreign trade structure and bilateral trade between China and South Asia structure.In the analysis of competition and complementarity between China and South Asia,the comparative advantage index,export similarity index and trade complementarity index are used to quantitatively analyze and provide policy suggestions for improving the level of trade between China and South Asia through empirical analysis.The research of the paper is divided into five parts.The first part,the introduction.The main contents include: to explore the research background and research significance of trade potential between China and South Asia;The theory of international trade and the theory of regional economic cooperation are reviewed;This paper summarizes the literature on China’s economic and trade cooperation with South Asia and China,and summarizes the methods of measuring the potential of China’s foreign trade development.The second part is about the development of foreign trade between China and South Asia.The main contents include: the trade development level of China,South Asia and South Asian countries,respectively,the trade structure of the respective estimates;calculate China and South Asia bilateral import and export development and trade balance analysis;China and South Asia,the country’s bilateral Trade structure of the classification,and then trade intensity index calculation,analysis of China and South Asian countries,the degree of trade links.The third part,China and South Asia trade structure of the competitiveness and complementarity analysis.The main contents include quantitative analysis of the competitive advantage index and export similarity index in trade competition between China and South Asia.Quantitative analysis is carried out on the complementarity problem by trade complementarity index.The fourth part is to study the trade potential of China and South Asia.The main contents include: the use of trade gravity model,structural trade potential measurement model.Respectively,the maritime distance,the per capita GDP difference between the two countries as an explanatory variable,the WTO as a dummy variable and introduced into the empirical study,quantify the trade potential of China-South Asian countries and measure the trade potential,The conclusion is that the trade space between China and South Asian countries is huge.The fifth part,improve the level of trade between China and South Asian development policy recommendations.The main contents include: First of all,according to the previous analysis of the conclusions of the study and summary.On the basis of previous studies,combined with the theory of international trade and the theory of regional economy,compared with the problems in the previous research,from strengthening bilateral and political mutual trust between China and South Asia、improve the level of bilateral trade facilitation between China and South Asia(countries)、using multi-dimensional sub-regions、regional cooperation platform to strengthen economic and trade cooperation,As well as to improve China’s investment in South Asia and investment areas targeted four aspects,respectively,to promote China-South Asia trade development level of countermeasures and suggestions.