The Measurement Of Credit Risk Of Real Estate Listed Companies

The real estate industry is the pillar industry of China's national economy.After China's economy enters the new normal,the real estate market remains relatively resilient.While the real estate industry develops rapidly,there are also credit risks.At present,China's real estate listed companies have great debt repayment pressure,frequent default events,and the overall credit risk of real estate listed companies is high.Credit risk is the most important financial risk with transitivity.The credit risk of the real estate industry generally affects all fields of social and economic activities,and affects the financial system of the whole country.Credit risk has its particularity.It is very difficult to identify and measure credit risk.How to better identify and measure credit risk has become the first step of risk control.In terms of credit risk identification and measurement methods,most credit risk measurement models and methods are largely dependent on the company's financial indicators and financial data.In this paper,the KMV model is selected,using Black-Scholes option pricing theory and Merton's corporate debt pricing theory.As a theoretical basis,the use of stock price changes to measure the credit risk of listed real estate companies in China is beneficial to enrich relevant research content.The empirical part of the paper can be divided into three steps.The first step is to select two samples of the default group and the non-default group as a comparison,and select 11 points of 0.1,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.9 to trigger the default point of the KMV model.DP is revised.According to the empirical analysis results of the two groups of samples,it is considered that the correction of 0.9 is most effective.In the second step,in order to verify whether the revised KMV model is effective and predictable,the historical data of the three companies with high credit risk are selected for calculation,and the measurement result is compared with the credit rating of the credit rating company.The result is that the revised KMV model is effective and predictive,and can effectively measure the credit risk of listed real estate companies in China.The third step is to use the revised KMV model to measure the credit risk of 102 real estate listed companies in my country from 2012 to 2019,and take the average credit risk of 102 real estate listed companies as the overall credit risk of listed real estate companies.Through empirical analysis,it is concluded that China's listed real estate companies have generally high credit risks from 2012 to 2019,with the highest credit risk in 2015 and the lowest credit risk in 2017;the business climate index,entrepreneur confidence index,the national housing climate index and consumers The confidence index is contrary to the trend of credit risk of listed real estate companies.With the increase in the enterprise prosperity index,entrepreneur confidence index,national housing prosperity index and consumer confidence index,the credit risk of listed real estate companies will be reduced accordingly;lowering housing prices does not control listed real estate companies well Credit risk will also lead to a reduction in consumer confidence and a slump in the real estate industry,which will increase the credit risk of listed real estate companies.Listed real estate companies are also affected by the base currency.When there is excess currency liquidity in circulation,a large amount of capital will flow in For listed real estate companies,the inflow of funds stabilizes the capital chain of listed real estate companies and reduces credit risk.