| With the increasing scale of online shopping in recent years,the express delivery industry has ushered in a golden period of development.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,as of 2018,the national express delivery service business volume reached 50.71 billion pieces,an increase of 26.6% over the same period.Business revenue reached 603.84 billion yuan,an increase of 21.8% over the same period.However,in the context of rapid development of the industry,as an important part of the express delivery industry,express delivery has been a frequent problem.According to the consumer complaint data released by the State Post Bureau,delivery services,postage delays,and shipments due to unreliable delivery are shown.The loss of shortfalls and the destruction of shipments accounted for the top four,which were41.6%,27.4%,17.5%,and 9.6% respectively.How to ensure the safe and reliable delivery process is a thorny issue for enterprises.The safe and reliable express delivery system not only saves a lot of distribution costs for the enterprise,but also improves customer satisfaction and promotes the growth of the company's performance.Therefore,research on the reliability of the express delivery system has good social and economic benefits.This paper takes the reliability of express delivery system as the research object.On the basis of the qualitative and quantitative research of express delivery reliability at home and abroad,the courier delivery system involves the parts of mailing,transit,transportation and receiving,and the influencing factors of each link.Numerous,the express delivery system is divided into two levels of subsystems and influencing factors.Using Markov process-GO synthesis method,the reliability prediction model of distribution subsystem based on Markov method and the reliability analysis modelof distribution system influencing factors based on GO method are respectively constructed to solve the weak link and its main faults in express delivery system.The difficulty in identifying the influencing factors provides a reference for the reliability management of express delivery companies.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Correlation analysis of express delivery system and its reliability characteristics.Firstly,the express delivery system is analyzed.According to the express delivery operation process,the express delivery system is divided into different stages,and the main work contents of each stage are elaborated.Then,the express delivery system mode is analyzed,and the different express delivery is analyzed in detail according to the different delivery delivery participants.The advantages and disadvantages of the model;finally,the reliability characteristics and classification of the express delivery system are analyzed,which lays the foundation for the later modeling.(2)Construct a comprehensive analysis method of the express delivery system reliability analysis model.The reliability of express delivery system is divided into two levels: subsystem and influencing factors.The reliability prediction model of distribution subsystem based on Markov method and the reliability analysis model of influencing factors based on GO method are constructed respectively.The express delivery system is weak.Identify the links and their main influencing factors and give detailed modeling steps.(3)Markov process-GO comprehensive method analysis and case study.Firstly,by comparing other reliability analysis methods,the advantages and analysis steps of the comprehensive method are given.Then,a courier delivery enterprise in Shanghai is selected as a case,and the reliability of the distribution system is analyzed according to the comprehensive method.The Bayesian network is used.The GO operation is simplified,and the analysis results show that the receiving and sending subsystem is the weak link in the express delivery system,and the mailing delay and poor service attitude in the receiving process are the main influencing factors.(4)Proposing for reliability improvement of express delivery system.According to the results of case analysis,according to the classification of influencing factors,thesuggestions for the improvement of time,item quality and service quality reliability of the weak link in the express delivery system of the enterprise are given respectively,which provides reference for enterprise reliability management. |
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