Study On The Sustainability Of The Basic Pension Insurance System For Urban Employees In China

The increasingly serious population aging in China and the implicit debt accumulated during the operation of urban employees' basic endowment insurance have made the future sustainability of China's urban employees' basic endowment insurance system face severe challenges.This paper divides the insured persons of the basic pension system of urban employees in China into different groups according to gender and age,establishes the actuarial models of the present value of pension insurance contributions and the present value of pensions after retirement,estimates the scale of the implicit debt existing in the basic pension insurance system for urban employees,study the sustainability of the basic pension insurance system,analyzes the changing trend of implicit debts and the sensitivity of the factors affecting the sustainability of urban employees' basic pension insurance.According to the sensitivity analysis results,this paper puts forward policy recommendations and measures the implicit debts under the new policy.The research in this paper finds that,on the one hand,the addition of newcomers delays the outbreak time of the payment crisis of urban employees' basic pension insurance system.In the foreseeable 20 years,the basic pension insurance system for urban employees in China will remain stable.On the other hand,implicit debts has not been greatly reduced with the addition of newcomers,and the government's financial pressure on basic pension insurance for urban workers is still huge.Sensitivity analysis of implicit debt found that implicit debt is sensitive to retirement age and interest rates.In order to reduce the huge implicit debts of urban employees' basic pension insurance,this paper suggests delaying retirement and expanding pensions into the market.