| Economic convergence means that regions with a backward initial level develop faster to catch up with developed regions.In other words,the level of development tends to be the same.Economic convergence can be divided into maximized convergence and maximized convergence.In terms of statistical indicators,maximized convergence shows that the dispersion of per capita income decreases with the passing of time.Conditional convergence can also be divided into absolute convergence and conditional convergence.Absolute convergence is shown as the negative correlation between the level of output per capita and the growth rate,so the backward regions have a faster development speed.The difference between conditional convergence and absolute convergence is that the controllable variables are added,and it is pointed out that the growth rate is related to the economic structure,and the realization of convergence is only shown under certain conditions.The content of economic convergence study is whether the backward regions can catch up with the developed regions,and the speed of catching up.It is of great significance to study economic convergence to realize the balance of regional development.In convergence concept put forward at the beginning of the model for the cross section model,scholars use only for the study area development speed was analyzed,and then,on the basis of based on the solow model,using the panel data method,time series cointegration method,dynamic method of income distribution,panel unit root method,etc.,but for the influence of spatial interaction has set a different model,this paper USES the economic distance matrix to join the space interaction,thus to explore the convergence of county economy of hubei province.In 2017,Yicheng had the highest per capita GDP at 147,325 yuan,while Yunxi county had the lowest per capita GDP at 16,293 yuan.Yicheng's per capita GDP is 131,032 yuan higher than That of Yunxi,more than nine times higher.In 2017,Tuanfeng County had the highest growth rate of per capita GDP(25.49%),while Caidian District had the lowest growth rate(38%).Can county economy of Hubei province achieve the narrowing of economic gap under this circumstance?Therefore,this paper takes the county economy of Hubei Province as the research object to study its convergence.In view of the availability of data,economic indicators of 79 counties from 2010 to 2017 are selected to study their convergence,and some Suggestions are provided for the development of county economyFirstly,this paper introduces the research background and sorts out the papers on convergence.On this basis,the paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of per capita GDP,residents' disposable income and economic growth rate,analyzes it from the intuitive trend,and studies the changes in the size of the economic gap in the county.The index of statistical analysis is divided into absolute index and relative index The absolute index includes range,standard deviation and average difference,while the relative index includes extreme value difference,thiel index and coefficient of variation.The statistical results show that the absolute difference in per capita GDP is expanding,while the relative difference first expands and then shrinks.The gap of residents' disposable income has shown a trend of widening in both absolute and relative indicators.The growth rate has been in a state of fluctuation,but there is a trend of declineBy using the variance test equation proposed by barrow to analyze the panel data of county economy in hubei province from 2010 to 2017,it is concluded that there is no convergence.Firstly,the dynamic space panel model was used to test the convergence of absolute equity.In the case of space distance matrix and economic geography matrix,both results were obtained that the coefficient of logarithm of per capita GDP of the lagging first period was less than 1,and the significance test was passed.Therefore,absolute equity convergence existed in the economic growth rate of counties in hubei V province.After joining the population,foreign trade export,investment in fixed assets,investment,industrial added value as a share of GDP,per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods after six indicators,using the panel model estimates that the lag issue log of per capita GDP of coefficient of less than 1,the same show there is conditional convergence,then using dynamic panel model to beta convergence test conditions,the same,using spatial distance matrix estimate the economic geography and the lag issue of per capita GDP of logarithmic coefficient is less than 1,also shows the existence of conditional convergence.In the study of the convergence of the quality of economic growth,DEA is first used to measure the economic quality of each county,and the comprehensive score of the economic quality of each county is obtained.The spatial dynamic panel model was used to test the convergence of absolute equity.The coefficient of logarithm of GDP per capita in the lagging period was less than 1,indicating that absolute equity convergence existed.Convergence conditions for beta test using a panel model,joined by the economic structure of the control variables are still population,foreign trade export,investment in fixed assets,investment,industrial added value of GDP and per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods,this is for in the same environment to explore the convergence of economic quality,the results show that the lag issue of logarithmic coefficient of per capita GDP is less than 1,there is conditional convergence.Using the spatial dynamic panel model,the spatial matrix indicates the existence of conditional income convergence,whereas the economic geography matrix does not indicate the existence of conditional income convergence.According to the empirical test results,some policy Suggestions are put forward from six aspects.First,we should attach importance to the cultivation and introduction of comprehensive and innovative talents,and strengthen the combination of theory and practice.Second,we should expand exports,provide credit support and financial subsidies from the government,and bring in talents from enterprises.We should take VI both measures to strengthen foreign trade.Third,we should increase the quality of investment in fixed assets and appropriately guide them to be invested in high-tech industries and key projects supported by the state,provincial and municipal governments,so as to avoid inefficient investment and achieve substantial development.Fourth,we will improve the quality of attracting capital.Make rational use of external funds,actively create a good investment environment,attract capital inflows,seek a good market environment,and improve the utilization rate of capital.Fifth,we will increase market vitality,promote consumer spending,increase people's willingness to buy,and ensure that consumer goods consumption rises.Sixth,we need to shorten economic distances,build transportation infrastructure,strengthen cooperation with other countries,and increase technology diffusion. |
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