A Comparative Study On The Evolution Of International Spatial Correlation Of China's Economic Growth: 2002-2014

The trade war between China and the United States has had a huge impact on the global economy.In fact,since China joined the WTO in 2002,the correlation between Chinese Economy and the world economy have continued to strengthen.We defined the period from 2002 to 2012 as the Old Normal,and China entered the New Normal after 2012.Based on the world input-output table from WIOD in 2002-2014,this paper studies and compares the evolution of the relationship between the economic growth of China in the Old and New Normal period and that of other regions in the world.The main research methods include:forward and backward spatial linkage coefficient;economic dependence;decomposition of value-added changes:value-added rate effect,domestic multiplier effect,feedback effect,spillover effect,domestic final product effect,overseas final product effect.The innovation of this paper:on one hand,using the MRIO model to analyze the power source of China's economic growth and the relationship between that and other economies in the world from the perspective of global linkage;on the other hand,conducting a dynamic comparative analysis of the International linkage changes in the Old and New Normal period.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the forward linkage degree of China's secondary industry increased significantly in the Old Normal period,while that of the tertiary industry increased at a rapid speed after entering the New Normal.Secondly,the increase of China's external influence in the Old Normal period is mainly reflected in the large number of small and medium-sized developing economies,which has become more prominent since the New Normal.Thirdly,compared with Old Normal period,China's economy is more dependent on internal factors after entering the New Normal,among which the industrial sector's dependence on domestic final products has increased significantly.Fourth,both in the old normal period and in the new normal period for China's TFP growth factors,the output scale effect which affect the TFP is always the biggest.The effect of technology change and the effect of factor allocation is relatively small,and negative,which means that China's economic growth from 2002 to 2014 is mainly dependent on the output scale enlargement.Pure technical progress of the effect on TFP growth is smaller than imagination,and elements of mismatch problem that has existed and prevents the TFP level of ascension.Accordingly,based on the research conclusions of this paper and the current development situation of China,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:First,China need to further improve its level of opening-up.China's economic development over the past decades is a process in which China's economy integrates into the global value chain.China's economy has gained a lot from the continuous opening up to the outside world and established a sound industrial manufacturing system.The continuous development of the manufacturing industry has injected strong impetus to China's economic growth in the Old Normal period.In the new normal period,the industrial structure is constantly upgrading,and the opening up should continue and deepen.Second,we must unswervingly implement the "Belt and Road" initiative.Although China's economy became the world's second largest in 2010,it is still a developing country.During the whole analysis,the relationship between Chinese economy and Asian countries and a large number of small and medium-sized developing economies is the closest,which means that China's impact on developed countries is still limited in the current.Therefore,under the background of upgrading industrial structure and Chinese economic development transformation,further carrying out the strategy of "Belt and Road",constantly strengthen China's contact with the Eurasian countries is of great significance.Third,China need to attach importance to its domestic market.After entering the new normal,major countries including China and the United States have become increasingly dependent on domestic final products,which means that China should attach importance to the domestic market while expanding the degree of opening up to the outside world.China's domestic demand is large enough,and this part of demand is of great significance to stabilize domestic economic growth.China should not blindly pursue the expansion of foreign trade while ignoring the huge demand of the domestic market.Fourth,China will optimize the industrial structure and give priority to the secondary industry.The change of value-added rate effect of each country during the analysis of structural decomposition tells us that it is not a good thing for the tertiary industry to take a large proportion in the national economy.In China's future development,the government should always pay attention to the rationalization of the industrial structure and constantly develop the tertiary industry on the premise of ensuring the development of the real economy.Fifth,we should unswervingly carry out supply-side structural reform,raise the level of innovation,and optimize the allocation of resources.On the one hand,efforts should be made to improve the level of technology so that less intermediate goods can be consumed in the production of the same unit of output;On the other hand,in the coming period,optimizing the allocation structure of factors and solving the problem of resource mismatch will be another source of the improvement of TFP level.