Research On Forecast Of General Public Budget Revenue And Expenditure Under Mid-term Financial Planning

The medium-term financial planning management is an important goal of the new round of budget management reform in China.Scientific revenue and expenditure forecast is an important foundation and prerequisite for the realization of cross year budget management.This article takes Shanghai as an example to study how to scientifically predict the general public budget revenue and expenditure from the perspective of mid-term fiscal planning and propose corresponding policy recommendations for the current general public budget revenue and expenditure structure.Considering the complex non-linear mapping relationship between general public budget revenue and macroeconomic factors,a combined forecasting method lasso BP neural network model is adopted.Firstly,the explanatory variables which have significant influence on general public budget revenue are screened out by lasso variable selection method,then the fitting value of explanatory variables is obtained by Holt winters non season model,and finally the fitting value of explanatory variables is screened The selected explanatory variables and the actual value of the general public budget revenue of Shanghai are used as training pairs to predict the general public budget revenue of Shanghai in 2019-2021.For general public budget expenditure,firstly,expenditure subjects are classified according to the function of government.Then,according to the expenditure category,we choose the model with higher precision,which is the grey forecast GM(1,1)and Holt winters non season model in the time series model,to forecast the expenditure categories of general public budget.It can be found that the model used in this paper has a good prediction ability for Shanghai's general public budget revenue and expenditure,and the fitting accuracy is very high.The prediction results show that the contradiction between Shanghai's general public budget revenue and expenditure will be further intensified in the next three years.Therefore,it is urgent for Shanghai to implement a scientific and effective medium-term financial planning system,balance the cross-year financial revenue and expenditure,optimize the structure of general public budget revenue and expenditure,and achieve Financial sustainability.