The Application Of Tax Revenue Forecast In The Medium-term Fiscal Planning Of Yunnan Province

Yunnan province is the first to medium-term fiscal planning ideas through to much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning in the province,the core of the medium-term fiscal planning is to forecast income and expenditure,the matching resources,constraints,the medium-term budget combined with government policy.So the reasonable tax revenue forecasting method helps to precise scientific arrangement of financial expenditure.In 2015 the state council issued "about the opinions of the medium-term fiscal planning management",the medium-term fiscal plan management is put forward.For this concept,there are many other ways in foreign countries,such as rolling budget,budget for many years,medium-term budget,medium-term spending framework,medium-term fiscal plan,etc.,and for China,medium-term fiscal planning is the language of our country characteristic.Although different literature about its expression is different,but the expression of the connotation of the essence is consistent,is basically the same,is a detailed set of medium-term budget estimates connected to the government fiscal policy binding process.This financial planning cycle is usually for two to five years,therefore,in designing this kind of planning,must be in economic activity may happen in the future,may have an impact for the whole economic and social factors into consideration,and logarithmic years developing trend of the financial income and reasonable judgment.In this way,both in the present and the short-term future,the government can have targeted based on national income spending to make the right reflection,finally achieve reasonable use of fiscal funds,promoting the development of the economy as a whole.However,the forecast for medium-term fiscal revenue of our country study hardly.In fact,tax revenue forecast in practice,the application of problem has always been to be solved urgently,tax revenue forecasting precision ascension helps the arrangement of the national fiscal spending plan for the future of science,therefore,for medium-term fiscal plan formulation,can accurate and effective to forecast the taxrevenue is crucial.Taking yunnan province as an example,the research applies to the medium-term fiscal plan tax revenue forecasting method in yunnan province.The article structure is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction.Mainly introduced the research background and significance,the domestic and foreign about the tax revenue forecasting method and the related research of medium-term fiscal plan,and introduces the innovations and deficiencies of these studies.The second chapter mainly elaborates the basic theory of medium-term fiscal and tax revenue forecasts,the overseas medium-term fiscal revenue forecast to foreign commonly used prediction method and the enlightenment,for below medium-term fiscal revenue prediction in yunnan province by the use of.The third chapter for the traditional single prediction model used in yunnan province medium-term fiscal plan tax revenue forecasts and analysis.Separately in yunnan province in 1996-2010 tax data forecasting medium-term fiscal revenues in 2011-2015,set up time series prediction,regression analysis and artificial neural network model,verify the validity of the model,and parse the results of the estimation.The fourth chapter use of the advantages of single model,and build a medium-term fiscal planning tax revenue in yunnan province combination forecast model and the results are discussed.The fifth chapter is the comparative study of the model and the economic analysis of the results section.A combination of three single models and model prediction results and effects of contrast analysis,for medium-term fiscal and tax revenue forecasting method of yunnan province to provide Suggestions.The sixth chapter for the summary and outlook.