The Study Of E-commerce Enterprise Valuation Based On The Modified Customer Lifetime Value Model

With the development of communications technology,the Internet has become a essential thing in people's daily lives.As of December 31,2018,the number of the Internet users in China had reached 827 million,of which 550 million were online shopping users,and mobile shopping accounted for nearly 80% of the total scale,exceeding the United States in absolute numbers.The Internet industry is booming in China,and many different types of Internet companies are constantly emerging,which meet people's different needs.The Internet economy is increasingly playing a leading role in economy.At the same time,the highrisk and high-yield characteristics of the Internet economy have attracted the attention of various types of capital.Capital operation activities,such as investment,mergers and acquisitions,and listing and reorganization,are becoming more common.However,due to the particularity of Internet companies,traditional methods,such as the discounted income method,market comparison method,and asset-based method,face the problem of inapplicability when evaluating the value of Internet companies.In view of this,this article will try to discuss the value evaluation of platform-based Internet companies.First,we systematically sort out related literature of customer value,and define platform Internet companies,analyze and summarize their profit models and valuation characteristics.and then we analyze the applicability of traditional enterprise value evaluation methods for platform Internet companies that are not yet profitable or whose profitability is highly uncertain,Introduce user value method for value evaluation.Secondly,we analyze the applicability of customer lifetime value(CLV)model,and use the enterprise lifecycle theory,Metcalfe's law and customer lifetime value theory as the theoretical basis to improve the original model.In terms of the number of active users,we introduced the BASS diffusion model to predict,evolved the original model from a one-stage model to a two-stage model,and then added per capita Gross Merchandise Volume(GMV)and monetization rate indicators into the model.Finally,taking Pinduoduo as a case,explain the determination method of each parameter in model at length.By analyzing the evaluation results,the error between the valuation result and the actual market value is only 7.93%,indicating that the modified CLV model can precisely evaluate the platform-based Internet companies which are unprofitable..