| In recent years,changing from unilateral rising to increasing and falling,the growth of inter-city housing prices is showing a clear trend of differentiation.At the same time,the government has frequently implemented housing price adjustment policies to intervene the housing market.Regarding to the phenomenon,the existing literature mainly focuses on supply and demand(income,population,employment,land supply and real estate enterprise investment),expectations and policy to explain the heterogeneity of price fluctuations between cities.This paper tries to expand the influencing factors of housing price differentiation into the field of policy uncertainty,so as to provide a new research perspective for the study of the mechanism of house price differentiation.Moreover,this paper also attempts to analyze the transmission mechanism.On the whole,this paper holds that real estate policy uncertainty will generate income effect and real estate investment effect through financial friction and real option channels respectively,changing the degree of space mismatch between housing supply and demand,and affecting the differentiation of housing price growth between cities.Therefore,based on the perspective of real estate policy uncertainty,this article uses the Real Estate Policy Uncertainty Index(REPU),combined with city-level data from 50 cities in China from January 2010 to December 2017,using the LSTVAR model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function to explore the asymmetry impact of housing supply and demand mismatch shocks on the housing price differentiation under the different state of real estate policy uncertainty.In the end,the following conclusions are drawn in this paper.Firstly,through income effect and investment effect,real estate policy uncertainty affects the mismatch between supply and demand of housing and changes the trend of housing price growth differentiation.The income effect is embodied in that the uncertainty of real estate policy will affect bank credit supply through financial friction mechanism.And the investment effect will act on the waiting value of developing investment options through real option channels.Secondly,regardless of whether it is in a state of high real estate policy uncertainty or low real estate policy uncertainty,the range of fluctuations in housing price growth is greater than that without considering the impact of real estate policy uncertainty.Thirdly,both with income effect and investment effect,high real estate policy uncertainty has significantly weakened the stimulating impact of income growth differentiation and real estate investment differentiation on the differentiation of housing price growth and played a role in restraining housing price growth in the short term.However,there is no restraint effect under low real estate policy uncertainty.Therefore,when government departments issue policies to limit housing demand and regulate land supply,they need to take into account the impact of real estate policy uncertainties and maintain policy consistency.For investors,when choosing different cities for housing asset allocation,they should consider the impact of real estate policy uncertainty and make more precise adjustments to their investment strategies. |
