| The goal of this research was to identify factors that improve the accuracy of violence risk assessments made in cases involving threatening communications. Specifically, this research examined psychopathological, social, demographic, and dispositional characteristics of threateners, target/victim types and their relationship with threateners, psycholinguistic features of threatening communications, and methods of contact. The goal was to assess whether or not these variables are significantly associated with a greater likelihood that threateners would approach or harm targets. The outcome of each threat case was retrospectively determined through interviews of local, state, and federal law enforcement officers who investigated these cases. The study's database consisted of 96 cases investigated and assessed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation's National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime. Variables were scored manually and by two computer software programs which identified threateners' cognitive and emotional states.; This study examined three broad hypotheses: (1) There are social, demographic, and psychological characteristics of threateners associated with threat case outcome; (2) There are social and demographic characteristics of targets/victims associated with threat case outcome; and (3) There are language features, document features, and methods used to communicate threats associated with threat case outcome.; The first hypothesis was not supported, since characteristics of the threatener were not found to be associated with case outcome. The second and third hypotheses were supported by the following trends: two risk-enhancing factors related to the target/victim and eight risk-enhancing and four risk-reducing factors related to the threatening communication and methods of communicating were associated with case outcome. Two variables appear to signal the presence of cognition and emotion associated with predatory violence. An equation was created that accurately predicted 70.8% of all case outcomes in this study and 93.2% of the outcomes in the low (.00-.19) and 92.9% in the high (.5-1.0) ranges of prediction scores. Some limitations of this study and future research directions are discussed, along with potential application to involuntary hospitalization (commitment) decisions and release (i.e., from psychiatric hospitals) and parole decisions. |
