Study On The Threat Of Violent Terrorist Activities With Bayesian Network

In recent years,global violent terrorist activities occur repeatedly,destroyed the security and stability of the situation all over the world,to the national economy,the safety of the people all over the world have also been great threat.Therefore,for the prevention and control of violent terrorist activities gradually attention by the governments and attention.But often in actual case,because can't fast release to the public warning the threat of violent terrorist activities,people had to be in panic.This is due to the sudden and the complexity of violent terrorist activities,destructive and violent terrorist activities contain many uncertain factors,make policy makers can't timely and accurate to the threat of violent terrorist activities and development situation for sure.So,it can handle in all kinds of uncertainty factors in the process of violent terrorist activities happen,more timely,accurate response the development situation of violent terrorist activities the threat assessment study of violent terrorist activities is very necessary.This article will use the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,the threat of violent terrorist activities,and use the Bayesian networks modeling of violent terrorist activities in order to get violent terror threat assessment.By means of violent terrorist activities in the world event study analysis,extract relevant attributes,perfect various data,based on the Bayesian network violence terrorism threat model.And analyze the situation of violent terrorist activities in China,to obtain the characteristics of violent terrorist activities in China,with violent terrorist activities according to the data set based on Bayesian network model is established,model is suitable for our country's violent terrorist activities.At first,this article through to the large number of literature research later found that violence against terrorism threat assessment is the key of in prevention and control violent terrorist activities.In order to reduce as much as possible of violent terrorist activities,to be able to timely and accurate to evaluate the threat of violent terrorist activities is very necessary.In this paper,sudden strong violent terrorist activities,highlighting the complexity,uncertainty and more features,chosen to deal effectively with the problem of uncertainty Bayesian network modeling.In the event of violent terrorist activities provided under the Global Terrorism Database information is processed,after the expansion,with its completion of the training sample Bayesian network modeling and analysis of this reasoning.Then,after the build is complete Bayesian network model,select cases of violent terrorist activity model for testing.Test results show that the model can be the threat of violent terrorist activities more timely,accurate assessment.By integrating the experience and knowledge of experts,the use of intelligence information obtained intelligence agencies of violent terrorist activities in the development of the situation,to more clearly and accurately grasp.It provides a timely and accurate basis for decision makers to handle the violent terrorist activity.Finally,incidents of violent and terrorist activities in our research and analysis,combining literature describes the actual situation of violent terrorist activities,and summarizes the activities of terrorist violence for political purposes is strong,diverse means of attack,sudden attack,attack plan and other tight Features.And according to the characteristics of violent terrorist activities of violent terrorist activity model based on Bayesian network established to be updated.Make a new model of violent terrorist activities can adapt to the actual environment in our country,the violent terrorist activities play a role to our country.