| By reducing the energy and materials required to provide goods and services, nanotechnology has the potential to provide more appealing products while improving environmental performance and sustainability. However, while nanotechnology offers great potential, it is unlikely to be the first entirely benign technology. My hypothesis is that a technological push towards greater investment in nanotechnology without a commensurate consideration of the net environmental benefits will inevitably lead to cases where the nanotechnology substitute is inferior to the product or process replaced. Whether and how soon the promise of improved environmental quality could be realized depends on phrasing life cycle questions during research and development and pursuing commercialization intelligently.; I use technology scenarios and prospective hybrid life cycle assessment to estimate the economic and environmental life cycle implications of two projected nanotechnology-based products. In the case of using nanocomposites in light-duty vehicle body panels, the ability to disperse nanoscale particles in polymers would reduce vehicle weight thereby improving fuel economy. In the case of nanofabricated catalysts, the ability to position and stabilize platinum-group metal particles in automotive catalyst would reduce the amount of platinum-group metal required to meet emissions standards thereby reducing mining and refining activities. For each application, I compare a conventional product to its nanotechnology-based substitute to assess whether the nanotechnology substitute can be cost-effective and improve environmental quality.; Changing a product to reduce its environmental impact after the product has been developed can cost orders of magnitude more than making the change during research and development. As shown here, policy makers and industry can identify technology scenarios and employ prospective life cycle assessment during early research and development to evaluate future products and emerging technologies. The ability to evaluate life cycle implications of alternative courses of action during research and development improves the ability to evaluate tradeoffs, optimize products for all aspects of life cycle performance, and make more strategic R&D choices. A more informed understanding of the commercial, societal, and technological possibilities and its consequences will enable better decisions in regards to the selection, development, and commercialization of nanotechnology. |
