| Biological systems are inherently complex. Decision-making in agricultural supply chains is complex due to the biological dynamics of the 'raw material'. In the chicken meat supply chain, selection for broiler traits over years has intensified the tradeoff between reproductive efficiency in parent stocks and profitability at the processing and broiler levels. Because of complexities in the system, decisions tend to be sub-optimal. Research in the current thesis was undertaken to establish a systematic decision support system for the broiler chicken supply chain. In this thesis a hatching egg production model was developed that captures the economic effects of reproductive performance at an enterprise level. Similarly, a broiler model was developed that interprets flock-specific performance in economic terms. A Gompertz-based growth model, based on a wealth of published data, was exploited to estimate strain-specific growth patterns, and related input costs. The complexities of carcass yield dynamics were explored in detail. Finally, a processing module was developed to estimate the relative value of commercial broiler stocks. In combination with the hatching egg and broiler modules, the processing module was designed to elucidate strain-specific benefits and costs along the entire chicken supply chain. The model predicted that the strain choice is of much greater consequence in markets that exploit differences in carcass conformation, such as breast meat yield. It was employed to determine equivalencies in the tradeoff between broiler growth and yield traits with reproductive performance. It was also used to predict the economic benefits of sex-separate broiler growth scenarios. This systematic approach to decision support provides new levels of insight into broiler supply chain dynamics that will aid strategic and tactical decisions at the industry level. This supply chain level approach was ambitious and innovative, and is the first example of its kind in the livestock sector. |
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