U.S. Navy sailor retention: A model of continuation intentions and behavior

After initial obligation, a significant number of Sailors choose not to reenlist in the United States Navy. Over the last 10 years, reenlistment rates after initial obligation have fluctuated between 40% and 67%. Increasing Sailor retention continues to be a goal of the Navy. Although previous research addressed primarily economic influences relating to retention, recent research has shifted focus to quality of service factors (e.g., quality of life and work) as a way to improve Sailor continuation (i.e., retention) behavior. The Navy-wide Personnel Survey is one of the Navy's longest running survey programs, a useful tool for investigating continuation behavior, Sailor quality of work life, career development, commitment to the fleet, and other continuation issues since 1989. The present study employs structural equation modeling to explore the relationships among predictive factors related to actual continuation behavior. The models in this study utilize a number of questions representing the constructs of job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and career intentions to stay in the Navy, evaluating them at three separate time points after completion of the survey (12-, 18-, and 24-month follow-up). Model fit was assessed using appropriate indices to determine how the Navy and other organizations can improve actual continuation behavior by affecting job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and career intentions. In concordance with the hypothesis, job satisfaction predicted organizational commitment, which in turn predicted career intentions across time points. Sailors who were present at each time point were significantly more likely than Sailors who were absent at each time point to have higher levels of organizational commitment that predicted career intentions to stay in the Navy. Present Sailors were also more likely than absent Sailors at each time point to state that they planned a full 20-year career in the Navy. Thus, differences exist between Sailors who stay in the Navy and Sailors who leave in terms of organizational commitment and career intentions. In terms of increasing career intentions to stay in the Navy, focus should be given to increasing organizational commitment. Organizational commitment can be addressed as a factor in itself, and through increased job satisfaction.