An investigation of capacity and safety in near-terminal airspace for guiding information technology adoption

The nation's air traffic infrastructure, operating under current rules, regulations, practices, and technologies, is approaching its capacity. At some future date, it will be unable to accommodate an increase in air traffic. Travellers, airline operators, industry, and government all desire to see capacity increased in order to avoid delays, increased costs, inconveniences, and negative impacts on the economy. Various information technology (IT) based solutions have been proposed and/or fielded as a means to extend or augment human capabilities in an effort to increase capacity. Although there is promise in the ability of IT to increase capacity, there is very little scholarly literature and no verifiable proof that capacity is related to safety.; My effort examined the relationship between capacity and safety and illustrates its interactive nature. Understanding this relationship is a major consideration when determining whether to adopt information-based technologies, the employment of which should be aimed at increasing safety and capacity, not as individual entities or quantitative values, but as inextricably related and vital components of the air traffic infrastructure. My thesis was that the differences between increasing or decreasing demand on available capacity influence the levels of safety. Further, information technology solutions will have a direct effect on whether increased demand can be accommodated safely while remaining within the constraints imposed by current operational practices and rules.; The primary research effort involved collection and analysis of landing time intervals observed between arrival aircraft at selected locations. This effort assumes that a snapshot of current operating practices and procedures is obtainable by observing and recording how aircraft separation standards are actually employed at various airports. The primary data collection also assumed that audio and visual monitoring of aircraft and tower operations provided insights in establishing a relationship between safety and capacity, because difficulties encountered by aircraft pilots or air traffic controllers at high-demand times can be observed and understood.; Historical evidence to support the hypothesis that safety and capacity have a relationship was shown in two ways. The first historical correlation establishes a relationship between historical demands with safety incidents filed at the four airports under study. The second historical correlation relied on near mid-air collision reports filed at the thirty-one busiest airports in the United States and also correlated these reports with the recorded demand on the facility at the time.; A potential information technology process was developed and employed to demonstrate that a safety-capacity relationship exists and that selecting the appropriate information technologies for aircrews, aircraft, and controllers is the only viable means of achieving an increase in both safety and capacity. The primary landing time interval data obtained at LaGuardia was used to demonstrate the current state and the benefits of potential improvements.; This effort is the only known experimental or empirical effort to establish that a relationship between capacity and safety exists. All the evidence and findings support my thesis and the three additional sub-hypotheses, which hypothesize that there is a relationship between capacity and safety. My research also shows that current rules, technologies, and methods of operation in near-terminal airspace appear to artificially limit the ability of the existing air traffic control system to safely handle the projected growth in aircraft operations. A paradigm shift in the way aircraft are controlled is required if the National Airspace System is to safely accommodate increases in operational demand.