| This dissertation uses power-cycle theory to analyze the formation of international alliances. In this framework, critical points represent abrupt, non-linear changes in a state's cycle of power relative to other states and are the basis of structural change in the system. The principal hypothesis of this study is that critical points precipitate the formation of alliances as states seek security against the uncertainty of massive changes in the international system. This study also examines the effects of alliances on the incidence of war following critical points and the nature of wars once they are triggered. All of this is examined in theoretic terms and tested using statistical analyses of quantitative, empirical data along with historical case-study material. Policy implications are also discussed.; Significant statistical relationships between critical points and alliances are found. Historically, the incidence of critical points increases the probability of alliance formation. There is also a positive correlation between numbers of alliances and alliance members and numbers of critical points in the international system. Although there are limits on these findings, they provide empirical support for the proposition that critical points make alliance formation more likely and validate the theoretic analysis.; Statistically significant relationships between alliances and war after critical points are not found. Still, some interesting trends are apparent in the data. Historically, there were fewer wars following critical points when alliances form. This suggests that alliance formation may contribute to stability and deter some wars during critical intervals. At the same time, however, positive relationships are found between alliances and the nature (magnitude, severity, and intensity) of wars in general suggesting that, once wars occur, alliances play a role in the escalation of these wars. These findings identify issues for further research in both power-cycle theory and alliance theory.; Critical points and alliances, therefore, are important factors in international systems transformations. Alliances may also influence the likelihood and nature of wars during such transformations. As the world shifts from the Cold War era to an emerging world order for the new millennium, an understanding of how alliances affect international security during this transformation of the international system will be especially salient for foreign policy decisions. |
