| This study tests the hypothesis that the rate of change of a nation's foreign policy assertiveness tends to vary with the rate of change of its power resources, relative to those of its peer group nations. The peer group tested consists of six major nations: Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Russia/USSR, and the United States. The hypothesis is derived from a theory of assertiveness that holds: A nation's decision makers adopt more assertive foreign policies when they feel their nation is becoming more important and superior to its peers.; The study defines assertiveness, the dependent variable, as the magnitude and intensity of actions by a national government to influence the foreign environment. It is operationalized by five-year percentage changes in the government's civilian and military personnel stationed abroad, in total naval personnel, and in the number of messages sent to its missions abroad. The study defines power resources, the independent variable, as the basic capabilities a nation requires in order to exert influence abroad. This variable is operationalized by the aggregate of five-year percentage changes in four indicators (population, GNP, territory, and a relative political capacity index), less the means of those indicators for the other five nations.; Bivariate regressions for 1870-1990 showed that the relationships of assertiveness to power resources were statistically significant at the.05 level or below for all nations except Japan, with an average r{dollar}sp2{dollar} of.29. When limited to 1905-1985, when more and better data were available, the average variance explained increased to 42% for the five nations. Lagging the dependent variable increased the degree of association only for the United States and Japan. The possibilities of reverse causality and/or external confounding factors were examined and found not to invalidate the assertiveness hypothesis. Further, autobiographical writings of five prominent leaders showed support for the theory.; The results of the study are positive for the theory and the hypothesis. The theory and hypothesis should be useful in understanding and foreseeing increased or decreased assertive behavior by major nations after significant changes in their power resources (e.g., Germany, Japan, and Russia/USSR). |
