| Based on the study of relationship between economic development, resources utilization efficiency and the total quantity of natural resources consumption, especially the research on how the improvement of resources utilization efficiency can counteract the increase of natural resources consumption caused by the development of economy, a hypothesis named "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" is raised. Its concept, formulas, illustrations, derivation and highlights are revealed in details in this paper, which shows a new insight into the relationship between economic development and natural resources consumption.The hypothesis of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" explores the changes of natural resources consumption quantity under nine different scenarios by combining different conditions of economy and natural resources utilization efficiency. The target scenario is emphasized where the economy keeps growing while the resources utilization efficiency keeps increasing. By researching closely on the relationship between economic development, resources utilization efficiency and the total quantity of natural resources consumption applying mathematical deduction and scenario analysis, the mathematical expression of "inflection point" is obtained where the natural resources consumption stops increasing. The highlights of the research are the mathematical expressions showing the changes of natural resources consumption caused by different resources utilization efficiency and economic condition in diverse scenarios. The contributors to reach the "inflection point" in corresponding scenario are analyzed at the same time. Thus the changes of resources utilization efficiency and economic development behind the reflection point and their contribution to reach it can be calculated. Based on these, regular reflection points and the particular reflection point where reources utilization efficiency conteracts the total quantity are distinguished. In particular, the amount of natural resources consumption saved by the improvement of resources utilization efficiency in the target scenario where the economy keeps growing while the resources utilization efficiency keeps increasing is calculated to examine the status of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" closely.In consideration of water resources’irreplaceable ecological value and economic value, three indexes in industrial water field are picked for the verification of the hypothesis of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity", which are added value of industrial output, water consumption of industrial added value per10000Yuan as well as industrial water consumption respectively. Four different spatial scales are picked in this verification. There are a city (Shanghai), a developing country (China), a developed country (the United States) and the whole world. The procedures for the verification are as follows. First, find their "reflection point" respectively applying the mathematical expression given before. Second, calculate the amount of natural resources consumption devoted by resources utilization efficiency and economic development behind each "reflection point". Then, analyze the status of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" and the potential reason. Finally, organize different conclusions.Further analysis on the target scenario where the economy keeps growing while the resources utilization efficiency keeps increasing finds out that in order to reach the status of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" theoretically, the increment rate of resources utilization efficiency should overtake the economic growth rate. And if the two rates keep going like this, the status of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" can be obtained in the target scenario.The hypothesis of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" is still in the stage for further development and improvement. Thus, this paper discusses about the hypothesis and its applications after the verification, including the selection of indexes, the process of deduction, the graphics of illusions, the outcomes of verifications and the potential fields for appliance, etc. The discussion provides references for further development and improvement of the hypothesis of "Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency Countering Total Quantity" in the future.The research in this dissertation was supported by the key project in Ministry of Education, philosophy and social sciences, which is "Water-saving society Construction" with Project Grant No. of11JZD024. Part of the research results has been reported at EAAERE2013Congress and EAAERE2014Congress with the title of Model of Resources Utilization Efficiency Counteracting Total Quantity and Relevant Empirical Study and Model of Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency and Relevant Empirical Study on Water Resources respectively. |
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