| The objective of the theory of grand strategy put forth in this study is two-fold: (1) To provide a general framework of analysis of the policies of a state that pertain to its security. (2) To contribute to an understanding of the causes of the rise and decline of powers.; The dissertation thesis is that grand strategy is a major determinant of outcomes in international conflict. More specifically, two hypotheses are put forth: (1) That with a given international distribution of capabilities, different grand strategies will lead to different outcomes. (2) That some grand strategies result in a virtuous spiral whereby the underlying relative capabilities of a state are increased, whereas other grand strategies result in a vicious spiral whereby underlying capabilities decline.; The framework of analysis put forth includes four policy inputs: military strategy, economic policy, diplomacy, and legitimacy. Four pure policies at the grand strategy level are postulated, which use the policy inputs in differing ways: military containment/expansion, balance of power, alliance, and appeasement. Each policy is analysed in terms of its distinct advantages and its input requirements. Next, policy combinations are analysed, with a view to possible disjunctions between their respective input requirements.; The framework produces four criteria for assessing grand strategy. The external fit criterion applies to each policy individually, in terms of how well it is constituted and operated. The manner in which different policies within a grand strategy design support or undermine each other constitutes the internal coherence criterion. The relation between objects and capabilities concerns the way in which a grand strategy design results in a vicious spiral of declining capabilities, or a virtuous spiral of rising capabilities. The efficiency criterion assesses a grand strategy design in terms of its input-effectiveness.; The framework is tested in one longitudinal case study, Byzantine grand strategy from the sixth to the eleventh century, which is divided in eight sub-cases, across which there is significant variation both in grand strategy and in outcomes. |
