Dynamic Prediction And Correction Of Construction Cost Based On System Dynamics

At present,China's construction industry market tightening and construction enterprises homogenization,making the construction industry increasingly competitive.The construction project has the characteristics of long-term,complex and dynamic.It is one of the important issues concerned by all kinds of construction enterprises to control the construction cost of construction projects,improve the anti-risk ability of construction enterprises to deal with the cost fluctuation in the process of project implementation,and obtain the expected benefits.According to the financial annual report released by large state-owned construction enterprises in 2017-2018,their average net profit margin is far from that of other industries and is in a state of slight profit.The net profit margin is even lower than the yield rate of robust financial products.Since the steel industry carried out large-scale production cuts in accordance with the national requirements,the supply and demand relationship of steel products has been constantly changing.resulting in the unstable price of steel products in a state of continuous fluctuations.As one of the main products in China's steel industry,the price of rebar steel material is greatly affected by the price fluctuation of the steel industry,and rebar steel material occupies a relatively large proportion in the construction cost in ordinary house construction projects.Therefore,the price fluctuation of rebar steel material has a destructive impact on the construction cost of construction projects.Conventional cost management of construction project is based on the static comparative analysis of planned cost and actual cost.This method is limited by the accuracy of planned cost of construction project and the complexity of project implementation,etc.If it is difficult to form effective dynamic monitoring cost,the construction cost will fluctuate too much or even get out of control.Based on the dilemma of construction cost management of construction projects in the engineering industry,this paper starts from the perspective of the price of rebar steel material,which is an important factor affecting the construction cost of construction projects dynamically.Based on the price prediction of rebar steel material,the paper USES the system dynamics method to construct the construction cost dynamic prediction and deviation correction model.In order to effectively reduce the impact of dynamic price fluctuation of rebar steel on the construction cost,the dynamic rectifying model is scientifically applied to implement cost rectifying control in the construction of the project.First of all,this article through the relevant research literature and analyzed,based on the theory of system dynamics application in the engineering industry,engineering cost,construction management forecast and the cost of action research,analysis of the current situation of the theory of system dynamics in the construction cost are described for the application of dynamic prediction feasibility,construction cost management in the rebar price fluctuations on the cost of raw materials and the influence of the construction cost,research content and the scope of this article;Secondly,based on the engineering cost data and real construction project engineering data,the analysis of construction project cost in construction cost of various subjects,carding and factor of influence on construction cost analysis,to determine the importance of rebar material cost in construction cost management,to explore the market price fluctuations of rebar material dynamic effect of construction cost analysis using rebar material price construction cost of the feasibility of dynamic prediction and correction;Third,on the basis of the theory of system dynamics dynamic prediction model framework design and construction cost,by means of material rebar futures prices,PMI index,quantitative analysis of market supply and demand situation,build based on the construction cost prediction model to predict the price of rebar,the short-term prediction of rebar material unit price and predict construction cost volatility;Fourth,on the basis of the theory of system dynamics dynamic correction model framework,design and construction cost in view of the construction cost prediction based on rebar material price,on the basis of the theory of system dynamics dynamic correction model,building construction cost for materials price correction scheme,through the study of the rectification of rebar material price,achieve the goal of construction cost dynamic correction;Finally,using a 26 layer residence project actual project,the construction cost based on rebar material price forecast dynamic correction model the availability and cost of construction of ability of rectifying,empirical research,the results showed that the model in the empirical case,can effectively the dynamic management of construction project construction cost,to achieve the effect of smooth construction cost control.In this paper,application of system dynamics theory to short-term price forecasting in the rebar material price short-term prediction method is put forward,and according to the characteristics of the construction cost dynamic management,building including the rebar material price forecast price adjustment measures,rebar,rebar material impact on construction cost approach,the construction cost of dynamic correction model.It provides a new idea and concept for the dynamic management of construction cost.However,in this study,there is an implicit assumption that the project is constructed according to the plan,and various constraints in the actual project implementation process are far more complex than the assumptions in the paper.How to quantify all the actual construction cost constraints into the model is a difficult problem in the field of dynamic construction cost management.How to improve the prediction accuracy and dynamic rectification effect of construction cost of rebar steel in the model is the focus of the next research.Finally,this study is only applicable to rebar steel materials.How to use theoretical methods to conduct dynamic prediction and correction of other construction cost components will be one of the future research directions.