Study On Risk Evaluation And Control Of Vegetable Supply In Beijing Under The Epidemic Background

With the increase of people's income and the change of consumption concept,the requirement for the quality,diversity and safety of vegetables is increasing.As a first-tier city with a permanent population of more than 20 million,Beijing has an increasing quantity demand for vegetables.However,vegetable self-sufficiency rate in Beijing is low,as it mainly relies on supply from other cities.The outbreak of COVID-19 has not only threatened the lives of the people,but also has an impact on the supply of vegetables in Beijing due to the strict prevention and control of the spread of the epidemic.In this context,it is of practical significance to study the prediction and control of vegetable supply risk in Beijing under the epidemic background.The main content of this paper is as follows:This paper first analyzes that the vegetable is a product which has the following characteristics: multiple supply chain participants who are basically free from contractual constraints,have short storage time and high loss rate,prone to supply risks in the face of emergent public health event.Then it analyzes the factors that lead to risks in the vegetable supply in Beijing.This part first makes an analysis of the sources of Beijing's vegetable supply from the perspectives of local and foreign supply,and introduces the process of importing vegetables from other cities into Beijing.Based on this,through on-site investigations and data access,the paper sorts out and summarizes the risk factors in the production,purchase,and logistics links in the process of supplying vegetables to Beijing,and establishes a risk assessment index system for Beijing's vegetable supply under the epidemic.Next,the paper carries out the risk assessment of vegetable supply in Beijing under the epidemic situation.According to the established risk assessment index system,a Bayesian network structure model for risk assessment of vegetable supply in Beijing is constructed.Then this paper uses Pearl reasoning algorithm and the two-way reasoning function of Bayesian network to carry out forward reasoning for the prediction of the occurrence of risk,and reverse reasoning to find out the major cause of the risk so that it can be controlled in time when the risk occurs.Furthermore,this paper takes into account the probability of risk and the loss value caused by the risk by introducing the OWA operator,calculates the risk value of each risk factor before and after the Bayesian network information update,and analyzes and compares them after sorting.Finally,the paper carries out a study on the risk control of vegetable supply in Beijing under the epidemic situation.According to the summary,the causes of vegetable supply risks in Beijing during the epidemic mainly includes factors in industry operations,rural management,logistics technology,national policies,and laws and regulations.Based on Bayesian network reasoning algorithm,this paper explores the effect of risk control from single-level risk control and multi-level risk control perspective,and puts forward countermeasures.