Research On Risk Evaluation Of Multi-supply Chain Based On Improved VaR

Manufacturing globalization has extended competition among enterprises to the supply chain,and supply chain risk is a problem that cannot be ignored in supply chain management.For supply chain risks,different scholars have done a lot of research from different angles,and some scholars have tried to construct quantitative models to assess supply chain risks,but the current research is not deep enough,there is no system,and there are few studies that combine risk preference with supply chain risk.In this context,this paper combines the improved VaR method to analyze the supply chain risk with the smartphone manufacturing industry as a sample.After comparing several methods of VaR,Monte Carlo simulation method was selected as the main tool to evaluate the risk of supply chain,and the two defects of Montacaro simulation method were improved.This paper constructs a three-level multi-supply chain network and a three-level multi-supply chain risk assessment model.Based on this,a multi-supply chain risk assessment model considering member risk preference is constructed.This paper presents a supply chain risk value evaluation model centered on manufacturer j,which distinguishes its own risks,external risks,upstream risks and downstream risks.Taking 12 enterprises in the smart phone manufacturing industry as a research sample,the risk analysis of each node's own risk is carried out,and four manufacturing enterprises are taken as research objects to analyze their supply chain risks.The two companies with large comprehensive risks in the supply chain are analyzed separately,and their upstream and downstream risks are decomposed.Based on the risk assessment model,manufacturing companies can determine whether they have a competitive advantage in the industry and can choose and eliminate them among upstream suppliers and downstream vendors to achieve the goal of integrating and optimizing the supply chain.