Simulation Research On Regulation Policy Of Commercial Housing Market In Shenyang Based On System Dynamics

The real estate development and investment sector in Shenyang has taken on a corresponding scale,the urbanization rate has been increasing year by year,and a large number of migrants have poured into Shenyang,which has caused the commercial housing market in Shenyang to increase year by year.The overall urban structure of Shenyang continues to expand,and the market has begun to expand to the edge of the city.This has also brought a lot of land to the supply market of Shenyang and increased the supply of the real estate market.The commercial housing market is highly correlated with other related industries,and the factors involved are diverse,and the interaction between various factors will eventually be reflected in the price of commercial housing.This article expounds the basic theories of the real estate market from the three aspects of supply,demand and price,and compares and analyzes three real estate market model research methods.At the same time,it introduces the development and theoretical basis of system dynamics,and carries out modeling and simulation steps.Related discussions.This article takes the basic structure of the real estate market as a starting point to construct a system dynamics model of the real estate market.It analyzes the impact of population,macro economy,land market,and macro policies on the real estate market.The real estate system is divided into urban population subsystem,urban economic subsystem,commodity housing demand subsystem,and commodity housing supply subsystem.Through the related factors of each system,the various subsystems are integrated into the circulation system of the commercial housing market.After fully investigating and analyzing the development status of the commercial housing market in Shenyang,based on the historical data of the commercial housing market in Shenyang,the relationship equation between the real estate participation factor variables is established,and then the initial data is substituted into the model,and the equation is imported for trial operation.The test adjustment is in line with expectations.Construct a structural model that meets the actual situation of the commercial housing market in Shenyang,and conduct empirical research on the development trend of supply,demand and price of the commercial housing market in Shenyang from 2020 to 2024.Using the established system dynamics model of the commercial housing market in Shenyang,simulation experiments were carried out on real estate land policies,financial and monetary policies,and tax policies.Studies have shown that when the loan interest rate rises by 10%,it will have the greatest impact on the demand for commercial housing.However,the impact of tightening land policies and raising the tax rate at the development stage on the demand for commercial housing is not obvious;reducing land supply has an impact on the real estate supply market.The effect is obvious,the supply declines rapidly,while the effect of increasing the tax rate in the development stage on the supply is relatively small.The increase in interest rates has almost no effect on the commercial housing supply market;after the tax rate in the development stage is increased,there is no increase in the overall demand for commercial housing.It is difficult to achieve the goal of effective regulation and control of the commercial housing market by simply using the real estate tax policy.