The Price Impact Reasearch Of China's Petroleum Reserves On Domestic Petroleum Products Market Under The Background Of International Oil Price Fluctuation

With the continuous development of our economy and the continuous improvement of residents' living standards,China's oil consumption is growing,as the world's largest oil importer and the world's second largest oil consumer,establishing and perfecting our country's petroleum reserve system is vital to our country's energy security and economic development.How to stabilize the domestic market and reduce the risk of international crude oil market through oil reserves,it is of great significance to consolidate China's position in the international oil market.Therefore,on the basis of previous research,this paper analyzed the influence of the international crude oil market to China's petroleum products market,and also studied our country's oil reserves policy to stabilize the domestic petroleum products market,further,this paper also provides some policy recommendations to China's oil reserves construction.On the one hand,this paper used the VAR model and impulse response function to research the impact of the international crude oil price fluctuations to the China's petroleum products market and analyzed the short-term and long-term impact of international crude oil market to petroleum products market.we also researched the interactions between gasoline,diesel oil and jet-fuel market.At the same time,we used LOWESS to analyze the trend relationship of international crude oil price between gasoline,diesel and jet-fuel market,final we established the model to explain these quantitative relationships.On the other hand,based on the clearly quantitative relationships between the international crude oil prices and domestic petroleum products prices,refer to the price demand model which Teisberg had built up in 1981,we further researched the China's oil reserves effects on stabilize the domestic petroleum market from international crude oil price fluctuations under different situations.and we also studied the maximum sustainable number of days of to meet China's ordinary demand or minimum demand.In this paper the research found that some conclusions:First,the international crude oil price is the decisive factor that influence petroleum products market price,petroleum products market price effect on the international price of crude oil is very limited;Second,The elasticity coefficient of domestic product oil market price to international crude oil price is decreasing gradually;Third,the current size of China's oil reserves can effectively reduce the abnormal fluctuations of international crude oil market,but in the face of sudden supply disruptions,China's oil reserves are still insufficient.Forth.in the face of abnormal fluctuations of international crude oil,the price regulation of domestic crude oil can effectively relieve the pressure of the oil reserve system.