Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between Urban Economic Activities And PM2.5

In recent years,PM2.5 has become a social concern.Excessive PM2.5 concentration will not only affect the health of residents,but also cause huge economic losses and burdens on various aspects such as future environmental governance.Under the strategic requirement of sustainable development,how to realize the coordinated development of environment protection and economy is a key and difficult task.Therefore,the paper uses statistical methods to deeply study the dynamic relationship between economic activities and PM2.5concentration,which has important practical significance for reducing PM2.5 concentration and promoting sustainable urban development in the future.In view of this,we selects three typical cities of Beijing,Suzhou and Zhuhai as the sample cities from the areas with more serious PM2.5 pollution.Based on the monthly data monitored in real time from January 2014 to October 2019,we used the long-term panel regression and CVAR-SV model to analyze the linkage relationship between urban economic activities and PM2.5.First,using the long-panel method for modeling and from the results of the modified parameter estimation method,it is found that the housing construction area of the three typical cities has the largest positive impact on the PM2.5 concentration.At the same time,it is found that the time effect of the model is not significant,which indicates that the impact of urban activities on PM2.5 did not change dynamically with time at this stage.However,it has a significant regional effect,so it is necessary to analyze each city concretely.Then,according to the Bayesian model comparison criteria,the CVAR-SV model was selected from many forms of VAR model for empirical analysis.Using the impulse response function to analyze the linkage relationship between the economic activities of each city and the PM2.5 concentration,it was found that: for Beijing,PM2.5 itself has the largest and most lasting impact on its concentration,followed by the total industrial output value,finally housing construction area and freight turnover.For Suzhou,housing construction area and freight turnover have the greatest impact on PM2.5,followed by the total industrial output value.Finally,PM2.5 itself has the least intensity,but the most lasting time.For Zhuhai,freight turnover has the greatest impact,and the total industrial output value,housing construction area and its own impact intensity are roughly the same,but the latter two variables affect the time more lasting.Based on the above analysis,it is found that there is a gap in the impact of three economic activities on PM2.5 in various cities.Therefore,when cities formulate measures to reduce PM2.5 concentration,they must fully consider the local status quo and target governance.The main contribution of this paper is to apply the CVAR-SV model to the study of the linkage between urban economic activities and PM2.5.This provides quantitative research support for research and governance in the field of air pollution.