Research On The Dynamic Relationship Of China’s Industrial 3E System Based On VAR

As a "power source" for the progress of human civilization,energy has greatly contributed to the development of science and technology and the improvement of people’s living standards on the one hand,but also posed a serious challenge to the ecological environment due to the large amount of greenhouse gas emissions that accompany it.Energy and climate issues have attracted widespread attention around the world,and several conferences have been held to discuss global climate governance issues.As a major consumer of coal,fossil energy sources such as coal have played an important role in China’s rapid economic development,while also generating large amounts of carbon dioxide emissions.As a responsible country,China has also actively introduced relevant energy saving policies and made a "30-60" climate commitment to the world in 2020 at the UN conference.Industry,the backbone of the Chinese economy,also generates up to84% of CO2 emissions.Therefore,the study of the dynamics of the energy-economyenvironment system in China and Chinese industry is of great importance for the low carbon development of China and its industrial sector.This paper first analyzes the current development of 3E systems in China and Chinese industry from three aspects: energy consumption,CO2 emissions and economic growth.A unit root test was then performed on the relevant data to verify that the data met the smoothness requirements of the modelling.On this basis,a VAR model was used to select time series data of energy-economy-environment for Chinese and Chinese industries respectively to simulate the 3E system,aiming to clarify the dynamic relationship between economic development and changes in coal consumption and environment.The results of the study show that China’s economic development is currently dependent to a certain extent on the consumption of coal,which is a major influence on the increase of carbon emissions in China.However,with the upgrading of China’s industrial structure and the optimisation of its energy consumption structure,the impact of economic development on carbon emissions is gradually diminishing.In the long term,for every 1% increase in China’s coal consumption,per capita CO2 emissions will increase by 0.6799%;for every1% increase in per capita GDP,per capita CO2 emissions will decrease by 1.0403%.The error correction model shows that the error correction mechanism will pull the disequilibrium back to equilibrium with a strength of 0.0228% in short-term dynamic fluctuations.On the other hand,for every 1% increase in industrial coal consumption in China,industrial carbon emissions per capita will increase by 1.2334%;for every 1%increase in industrial output per capita,industrial carbon emissions per capita will increase by 2.8170%;the industry-based error correction model shows that the error correction mechanism will pull the disequilibrium state back to equilibrium with a strength of 1.2596%in short-term dynamic fluctuations.Finally,based on the findings of the study,recommendations related to low carbon development in China and Chinese industry are proposed.