Energy Conservation And Emission Reduction Performance Evaluation Modelling For China's Iron And Steel Industry With The Consideration Of Information Uncertainty

Nowadays,global climate change affects the survival and development of all human society.As China becomes the world's largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter,China's pressure on climate change is getting worse.However,China's current energy conservation and emissions reduction policies based on administrative targets of reduction in emission intensity is widely criticized to be lack of economic efficiency.Some researches have indicated that it may be more effective to use carbon emission and energy consumption rights trade mechanism,etc.Energy efficiency and CO2 abatement cost are crucial parameters to design the measures of energy conservation and emissions reduction based on market means,and the scientific estimation of energy efficiency and CO2 abatement cost is also fundamental to the design and implementation of energy conservation and carbon reduction policies.China's iron and steel industry is one of the priority industries in the process of energy conservation and carbon reduction.In order to further enhance the performance of energy saving and emission reduction in China's iron and steel industry,the scientific estimation of energy efficiency and carbon abatement cost of different regions and different enterprises of China's iron and steel industry will be a research work of great value.Based on firm-level and regional data,this paper estimated energy efficiency and carbon dioxide marginal abatement cost of iron and steel industry in order to provide references to setting up energy saving and emission reduction targets and improvemnt of energy saving and emission reduction performance.On the basis of previous studies,we make some improvements in the application of modeling with the consideration of information uncertainty.On the one hand,we adopt the non-parametric Bootstrap-DEA method to evaluate energy efficiency of the iron and steel enterprises to take the data's statistical noise into consideration;On the other hand,considering the unobservability of the actual production strategy and energy conservation and emission reduction behaviors of iron and steel enterprises,we use directional distance function and investigates the impact of using different directional vectors.We also analyze the change trend of total factor energy productivity index at the regional level of China's iron and steel industry during the 12th Five-year plan period using the Malmquist productivity index method.And then,multiple test methods are used to explore the heterogeneity of the energy efficiency and carbon abatement cost.The major conclusions are as follows:About the energy efficiency and productivity change:In the firm level,the average energy efficiency of China's major iron and steel enterprises is 0.77,there are 23%of room for improvement in 2014;there are significant regional differences in energy efficiency and the energy efficiency of listed iron and steel enterprises is higher than that of unlisted iron and steel enterprises.In the regional level,the total factor energy productivity index of China's iron and steel industry has not changed much during the 12th Five-year plan period,but there is a certain difference between the different regions.About the carbon marginal abatement cost(MAC):In the firm level,the average carbon MAC is approximately 2500yuan per ton,which is the average MAC of three different directional vectors.We also find substantial heterogeneity in the carbon MACs among China's major iron and steel enterprises.Larger,listed enterprises are found to be associated lower carbon MACs than smaller,unlisted enterprises.In the regional level,the average carbon MAC is approximately 4000 yuan per ton and the gap between regional MACs is becoming more and more significant.Based on the analysis and discussion of the foreword,relevant policy suggestions were put forward to help the improvemnt of energy saving and emission reduction performance in China's iron and steel industry.