Study On Catastrophic Evolution And Consequence Assessment Of Deepwater Blowout Accident

With the continuous development of oil and gas resources at home and abroad,the deepwater ocean area with abundant oil and gas resources has become an important exploration area for developers,and has gradually become a strategic high point for the development of oil and gas resources worldwide.Deepwater oil and gas development operations are characterized by their own exposure to fragile environments and many oil and gas risks.The development of deepwater drilling operations has obvious high risks and high damage.It is important to carry out research on the prevention and control of major accidents in deepwater drilling operations.significance.This paper combines the special project of the 7th generation ultra-deep water drilling platform independent innovation project of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the national key research and development plan “Land-risk oil tank mining major accident chain risk evolution research” project,systematically develops the cause system of deep water blowout accident and the evolution of accident disaster.Research on the path,the evaluation of the fire and explosion effects of the blowout leak,and the safety barrier of the whole process of the blowout accident provide reference for the accident prevention and control of the deepwater drilling operation.The main research progress is as follows:1.Risk analysis of cause of deep water blowout accidentInvestigate major accidents such as blowout in deepwater oil and gas development,and analyze the characteristics of accidents and the main causes of accidents;combined with the basic processes and potential signs of blowout accidents,analyze human error,operating equipment,process materials,environmental hazards and organizational management.The risk factors of deep water blowout accidents are constructed,and the accident hierarchy system is constructed.The accident phase is divided according to the accident development process,and the development accident tree method is used to improve the cause index system of the blowout accident.2.Risk analysis of catastrophic evolution of deep water blowout accidentAccording to the index system of deep water blowout accident cause,combined with the analysis steps of accident evolution scene,identify the evolution node of deep water blowout accident scene;analyze the development context map of typical blowout accident,and determine the attribute and risk transfer relationship of well evolution fault node by linkage graph theory;Constructing the linkage model of deep water blowout cause evolution;analyzing the unweighted and directed chain evolution,analyzing the node importance and system aggregation degree in the chain evolution network;conducting the directed chained evolution analysis of the weight,according to the expert evaluation of the influence of the precursor node on the successor node The degree determines the edge weight of the event,and uses Dijkstra algorithm to obtain the shortest evolution path from the initial event to the result event,and evaluates the risk invalidity of the initial factor causing the collapse of the blowout system.3.Evaluation of the consequences of deep water blowout fire and explosion accidentsCombined with the scene analysis of major derivative accidents after the blowout accident,establish a CFD-based method for evaluating the consequences of the blowout chain accidents of the blowout fire;investigate the analysis method of the influencing factors of the accident scene,and determine the method for solving the optimization problem of the multi-factor index effect of the accident scene;Seven-generation ultra-deep water drilling platform,establish three-dimensional simulation model and build a scale test system to study the law of blowout leakage diffusion;build the conditions of blowout fire and explosion scene based on leakage diffusion results,and study the influence of different factors on the consequences of fire and explosion accidents The orthogonal test is designed for different influencing factors of blowout leakage,fire and explosion.The influence degree of each influencing factor on the consequences of different accident scenes is analyzed,which provides reference for the prevention and control of blowout fire explosion accidents.4.Research on prevention and control methods of deep water blowout accidentAccording to the analysis of the causes,evolution and consequences of deep water blowout accidents,the risk control theory of deepwater blowout accident development is established based on FTA,ETA and bow model.The accident induced causes and main accident consequences are summarized,and preventive safety barriers and mitigation are constructed from multiple angles.The sexual safety barrier directly describes the whole process of accident development and corresponding control measures,and provides guidance for prevention and control of the blowout out of control accidents and emergency.