Based On The Sd Drilling Blowout Accident Cause Early Warning Mechanism And Simulation Research

For the present, along with the rising total demand of oil and gas resources, the exploration and development of China’s oil and gas is stepping into the peak gradually. Drilling engineering which is known as "the locomotive of oil industry" has become the focus of the oil and gas exploration and development. But the drilling operation is a hidden underground engineering, whit its big scale, high investments and high risk, there is a lot of randomness, fuzziness and uncertainty. Because of the misunderstandings of the objective situation or decision-making errors of the subjective consciousness, it may cause a lot of complex situation and serious accidents. The blowout accident is one of the most common and heavy loss safety accidents. The main aim of this paper is to use System Dynamics simulation technology to pre-warning blowout accident on the basis of analysis deep reason of it, then use it to direct the safety drilling operation for oil-drilling group and prevent the occurrence of blowout accident. This will improve the drilling operation’s safety level for oil and gas field enterprise of our country and protect the life and property of the people.Firstly, this study analyses the basic theory of blowout accident, then use System Dynamic theory to analyze the impact factors of the blowout accident, propound a unsafe behavior coupling theory for the blowout accident on the basis of the traditional accident-causing theory. This theory considers that the blowout accident is caused by the unsafe behavior that generates by field work layer, security layer, decision management layer, supervision and regulate layer’s cross-coupling function. It enriches the safety accident cause theory and reveals the deep reason of blowout accident further.On the analysis of safety influence factors of oil and gas well, the writer established simulation pre-warning model for its security system based on System Dynamics theory and modeling method, classify the pre-warning areas and recognize the pre-warning signals of blowout accident. Then use System Dynamic simulation software Vensim_PLE to a cause study simulation pre-warning of one oil well.Through simulating and monitoring the safety level value of the oil well security system, we can see the changing trend and corresponding pre-warning level of the oil well security system clearly in different periods, and it provides scientific and quantitative reference for controlling blowout accident in time.Finally, on the basis of the analysis of the blowout accident pre-warning, the writer put forward the concrete measures of preventing blowout accident from the human safety behavior level, safety management level, safety culture construction level and legal regulation level.