| Natural gas,as a kind of clean energy,especially shale gas,which is rich in reserves,will provide a huge boost to China's energy transformation and energy security in the future.Compared with the United States,domestic shale gas is buried deeper,the technology is not mature,the development investment risk is huge.Uncertainty for shale gas development investment,in this paper,based on the planning point of view,qualitative and quantitative analysis of the development of the shale gas industry,according to different degree of understanding of shale gas resources,the development of shale gas investment can be divided into resources evaluation phase,assessment of capacity and scale of development phase.When building a shale gas capacity evaluation stage of development investment risk quantification model,combining with all kinds of risk quantitative method,under the risk reserves,production and benefit,choose three kinds of risk are two major parameters respectively,and then set up a complete set of rapid evaluation model about shale gas development investment by combining the empirical curve,volume method and net present value method.When quantifying the risks of shale gas development investment,Monte Carlo simulation and MATLAB software are mainly used to obtain the probability distribution values of reserves,production and benefits by randomly sampling the main impact parameters for 10,000 times,so as to realize the risk quantification and visual analysis of shale gas development investment.At the same time,according to the scale of resource evaluation and development model,we can add up the reserves,output and benefits of shale gas in the three stages,and theoretically calculate the recoverable reserves of shale gas resources,as well as the shale gas production in low,medium and high probabilities over the next five years,which can provide some references for the planning and development of the shale gas industry in the 14 th five-year plan. |
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