| China’s industry has developed rapidly,and the industrial economy plays an important role in the national economy.However,the traditional industrial development model makes the resource and environment problems increasingly prominent,which constrains the sustainable development of regional economy.Since the 1980 s,China began to focus on resources development and economic development in the coastal area,but the negative externalities of the traditional industrial development model are increasingly reflected,most areas there is shortage of resources,environmental pollution aggravate,economic and ecological problems such as unbalanced development.Industrial resource and environmental efficiency is an important basis for reflecting the level of green development.Improve industrial resource and environmental efficiency by reducing industrial resource consumption and pollutant emissions,and increasing industrial economic output.In order to balance the benign interactive relationship between industrial economy and resources and environment,improve the efficiency of resources and environment in the process of industrial development.At present,China attaches great importance to the problems of pollution and energy consumption in the process of industrial production.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that it is necessary to achieve green development.The research is based on the theory of coordinated development of man-land relationship,and the EBM model based on undesired output is used to measure and evaluate the environmental efficiency of industrial resources in coastal areas of China.The study uses regional difference measurement index,Malmquist productivity index model and nuclear density analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of industrial resource and environmental efficiency.Research on the basis of the construction of panel Tobit regression model and geographic detector,explore the impact of industrial resources and environmental efficiency.Finally,the NICH index and Hurst index are used to simulate and predict the future development of industrial resource and environmental efficiency,find problems in the process of improving industrial resource and environmental efficiency in coastal areas,and propose optimization countermeasures.The research draws the following conclusions:(1)The overall level of industrial development in the coastal areas of China is relatively high and has always maintained a relatively high contribution rate.The growth rate of industrial added value shows a fluctuating downward trend.The yearon-year and cumulative industrial Moore structure indexes showed alternating and fluctuating changes.Industrial resource consumption continues to increase and significant regional differences.The number of cities with low consumption of industrial resources decreased significantly,and the number of cities with high consumption increased slightly.The discharge of industrial pollutants generally shows a trend of fluctuation first and then decline.The city has a big gap in space.Cities with higher pollutant emissions are mostly located in areas with more developed industrial economies.(2)The overall industrial resource and environmental efficiency of coastal areas is on the rise,and the spatial pattern has changed significantly.At the time level,the evolution trend of industrial resources,environment,and ecological efficiency is roughly the same.It can be divided into three stages: slow rise,slow fall,and obvious rise.The efficiency values of the three have increased from 0.57,0.68,and 0.56 in 2003 to 0.65,0.81,0.69 in 2016,and areas with high levels of industrial resource and environmental efficiency are mostly located in provinces with faster economic development and better environments.At the spatial level,the spatial pattern of industrial resource and environmental efficiency has changed greatly.The areas with higher levels in the early stage were mainly concentrated in coastal cities.In the later period,the industrial resource and environmental efficiency of inland cities improved,and the gap in industrial resource and environmental efficiency between cities was obvious Shrinking,began to highlight the "multi-core" development model and a strong radiation driving effect.(3)The measurement results show that per capita GDP,industrial pollution control investment as a percentage of GDP,innovation index,foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP,and industrial labor productivity have a very obvious positive role in promoting industrial resource and environmental efficiency.On the contrary,industrial added value as a percentage of GDP,The urbanization rate,and the number of industrial enterprises have a significant negative inhibitory effect on the industrial resource and environmental efficiency of the coastal areas of China.The results of factor interaction detection show that the intensity of the interaction between the level of industrialization and other factors is the most obvious,and the interaction between the level of industrialization and the level of social development has the most significant impact.On this basis,establish the influence mechanism among the factors.(4)In the future,the industrial resource and environmental efficiency of the coastal areas in China will continue to improve.In terms of industrial eco-efficiency,the Hurst value of 75.65% of the cities is lower than the overall Hurst value(0.9807).Changes in industrial eco-efficiency are less sustainable in the future,but 48.70% of the cities are in a state of improvement and DEA continues to be effective.Industrial eco-efficiency basically continues to improve in the future.In terms of industrial resource efficiency,40% of the cities belong to areas with high industrial resource efficiency,and 56.52%of the cities are higher than the overall Hurst value,which is highly sustainable and the overall development trend of industrial resource efficiency is good in the future.In terms of industrial environmental efficiency,more than half of the urban industrial environmental efficiency is relatively improved and the DEA is in a state of effective.The highest proportion of high-elevation areas is 32.17%,and it will continue to improve in the future.The research has the following innovative points: First,the typical coastal area of China is taken as the research area to analyze the characteristics of industrial development,resources and environment in the coastal area of China.Secondly,on the basis of input-output index,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influence effects of industrial resource and environment efficiency in coastal areas of China are further analyzed.The third is to simulate and predict the future evolution trend of industrial resource and environmental efficiency in China’s coastal areas,so as to strengthen the research on the linkage effect of spatial-temporal evolution,influence mechanism and future development trend of industrial resource and environmental efficiency. |