Comprehensive Research Of Tianjin Livestock And Poultry Breeding Resource Environmental Bearing Capacity Based On The Couple Model Of Super Efficiency Dea And Artificial Neural Network

Since the start of the Reform and Open Policy, people’s demand for livestock and poultry soared. Consequently, China witnessed a rapid development of livestock and poultry industry. However, serious environmental problems were induced at the same time. Tianjin, as the economic center of the Bohai coastal area, with the fast growth of urbanization, has to face up with the serious land resources shortage. Thus, the lands utilized for poultry and animal waste decreased gradually. Meanwhile, as most of the livestock and poultry farms(area) are located at the outskirts of the city, the daily life of nearby residents is seriously being affected by the discharge of these farms. The area of Tianjin belongs to semi-arid areas, and the massive development of the livestock & poultry field has exploded the consumption of fresh water, leading to a huge amount of relevant waste water pouring into the runoff water. These problems can become an environmental bomb if without any further action in the near future for Tianjin.The investigation of environmental bearing toward the livestock and poultry industry in Tianjin, can not only give useful guidance on the rational management of livestock and poultry breeding programs in Tianjin but also can prompt the sustainable development of this field. Based on the investigations in many previous literatures, the application of the DEA models and the artificial neural network models into the research for livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity in Tianjin, we got the conclusions below:1. The boundary of research system have been identified via the investigation of the situation of livestock and poultry breeding resources in Tianjin and livestock and poultry breeding plans. Besides, 15 evaluation indexes have been identified as well. Finally an evaluation system for the environmental bearing capacity of Tianjin’s livestock and poultry breeding resource has also been established.2. From the year of 2003 to 2005, the environmental bearing capacity for Tianjin’s livestock and poultry breeding resources was volatility. From the year of 2006 to 2008, due to the bird flu outbreak, the livestock and poultry breeding pollution intensity decreased, leading to the slight increase of the bearing capacity. But the environmental bearing capacity began to decline after the bird flu due to the increase of the breeding and the loss of arable land.3. A livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity simulation and predicted model has been built using NNTool, the normalization values in the year of 2003~2012, the corresponding of livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity index and the BP net.4. In the scene of plan, the livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity had a slight improvement in Tianjin in the year of 2015. But during the period of the 13 th Five Year Period, Tianjin livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity has a trend of decreasing compared to the year of 2015. So the government of Tianjin also needs to improve the level of livestock and poultry breeding resource environmental bearing capacity in the 13 th Five Year Period.5.On the basis of the analysis on bearing capacity prediction and a scene prediction of each evaluation index, some suggestions and comments on the improvement of Tianjin’s environmental conditions toward livestock and poultry breeding resources during the 13 th Five Year Period has been offered.