| The construction of ecological civilization is closely related to the future of mankind.The negative impact of rapid economic development on the ecological environment cannot be ignored,and the response to climate change has become a global issue.Countries around the world have taken a series of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Countries and regions such as the European Union,Japan and South Korea have established their own unique carbon emission trading markets.As an important participant,contributor,and leader in the construction of global ecological civilization,China adheres to the green and low-carbon circular development route.The establishment of a unified national carbon emission trading market is the only way for us.Therefore,studying the impact of the carbon emission trading market The influence of our country’s economy,energy and environment has very important theoretical and practical significance.This paper studies the implementation of the national unified carbon trading system from the perspectives of the current state of the national economy,energy and environment,the game model between the government and enterprises in the carbon trading market,the construction of the dynamic model of the national carbon trading system,and the prediction and analysis of the national carbon trading scenario.First of all,according to the official data of the National Statistical Yearbook and other relevant official data,quantitative analysis of the relevant indicators of the national economy,energy,and environmental systems,and estimate China’s carbon dioxide emissions from 2010 to 2018,and then clarify the economic level,energy consumption status,and Current status of carbon emissions;secondly,construct a full-information dynamic game model between the government and the enterprise,analyze the benefits of both parties in the game process,and determine that the penalty should be greater than twice the carbon trading price based on the Nash equilibrium result of the game model;finally,a system dynamics model of the national carbon trading is constructed to study the impact of the implementation of the national carbon trading on the national economy and energy environment.According to the method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis,the relationship between the three subsystems of economy,energy and environment is analyzed.Then,according to the causal loop diagram and carbon trading related data indicators,draw the stock flow diagram,determine the parameters,and establish the related equations.After verifying the effectiveness of the system,change the data of several key variables in the carbon trading system,and then simulate several different scenarios,and specifically study the impact of several scenarios on economic development,energy consumption and carbon emission reduction.Through the establishment and simulation of the model,the main conclusions drawn in this paper are as follows:First,the establishment of a national carbon trading market can indeed effectively control the increase rate of total carbon dioxide emissions,and it also has a certain inhibitory effect on total energy consumption,but it also Will have a certain negative impact on my country’s economic development;Second,the specific impact of changes in key variables in the carbon trading system is as follows:With the increase in carbon trading prices and the increase in the reduction rate of total quotas,the cost of carbon dioxide emissions for companies will directly increase,and carbon dioxide emissions will decrease,the negative impact on the country’s economic development has also increased.The higher the free rate,the stronger the promotion of economic growth,but the lower the motivation of the company to control carbon dioxide emissions,the weaker the effect of carbon dioxide emission reduction;Third,among the three different scenarios of key variables of carbon trading,changes in carbon trading prices have the most significant impact on economic development and the control of carbon emissions.Finally,according to the simulation results of different scenarios,the impact of carbon trading on the national economy,energy and environment is analyzed.Combined with the current situation of national development,policy recommendations for the implementation of the national unified carbon trading market are provided,which includes three aspects:carbon trading regulations and regulatory systems,total quotas and carbon price settings,and investment in new technology development. |
