The Prediction Of Beijing Passenger Traffic Energy Demand And Pollutants Emission In Future Based On LEAP Model

With economical development, Beijing passenger transportation demand is increasing gradually, making the amount of energy consumption and pollutants increasing. Energy is in short supply and air pollution is serious. The measure of energy conservation and emission reduction is imperative.Based on the current state and the problems of energy conservation and emission reduction of Beijing’s passenger transportation, this paper is to predict energy consumption and pollutant emissions before2030under the baseline scenario and two policy scenarios by using LEAP model (Long-range Energy Analysis Plan System). The results show the amount of energy demand under two policy scenarios is less than under the baseline scenario. But compared with scenario2scenario1is more effective. So we should focus on public transportation. Some measures are put forward for Beijing passenger transportation development reference from foreign experience.These results not only provide a reference for Beijing transportation, but also for other cities for urban construction.