Research On The Method Of Discriminating And Evaluating Dynamic Risk Of Expressway Operation Period Based On Risk Update Theory

In recent years,the condition of expressway traffic safety in China has become more and more severe.The number of deaths from road accidents accounts for 78.8% of all types of accidents in the country.Identifying expressway traffic safety risks in advance is a key step in preventing traffic accidents,and it is also an significant part of traffic safety research to change from passive safety improvement to active safety prevention and control.Traffic accidents generally originate from the development of risk factors.This study divides risk factors into static and dynamic factors.Static factors mainly include road environment and linear conditions,and dynamic factors mainly include traffic flow conditions.In order to strengthen the construction of the expressway’s active safety prevention and control theory system,this paper conducts an in-depth quantitative analysis of the dynamic risks existing on the highway.First of all,after reviewing the research methods of dynamic risks in road traffic and other related fields,this paper puts forward the theory of highway dynamic risks,and then puts forward the research methods of highway dynamic risks based on this,mainly including three links,they are respectively the selection of risk research indicators,data acquisition,and establishing the corresponding relationship between risk indicators and risk consequences.Then,this paper obtains the R value of the risk quantitative indicator through Fisher’s discriminant analysis algorithm,and uses the R value as the quantitative analysis standard for the dynamic risk research in this paper.The possible risk consequences under the rael traffic flow conditions were discriminated,and the quantitative analysis between R value and dynamic risk was completed by logistic regression analysis model.By studying the change of the R value before and after the accident,and establishing a corresponding relationship betweenwith the R value and the actual situation,the dynamic risk classification of the expressway based on the R value quantitative criterion is realized.Finally,this article systematically introduces the theory of morphogenesis and proposes the linear estimation model in morphological estimation should be used to restore the dynamic risk pattern of the highway after establishing a multi-dimensional linear function relationship between the traffic flow parameters and the risk value,.Taking into account that the characteristics of strong dynamic time variability,in order to make the discriminant function update continuously with time,a dynamic risk update algorithm is proposed,and the dynamic risk discriminant model of the highway is updated by constructing the background,constructing the morphogenesis system,and the similarity measure.In order to further explain the dynamic risk research system constructed in this paper,the case analysis of the entire set of risk identification processes is combined with actual data and scenarios in Chapter 5.The results show that the dynamic risk identification method and theoretical system proposed in this paper can effectively complete the highway Dynamic risk discrimination and update of risk discrimination models.