Measurement And Prediction Of Industrial Development Ability Of Waste Utilization Based On Grey Modeling Technology

The rapid development of China’s economy and the growing material needs of the people have led to the exploitation of more raw resources,while the waste generated after the production and consumption of products is increasing day by day.Waste utilization converts waste,scrap or end-of-life resources and materials into new resources or materials through recycling and reprocessing,which is an effective means and way to solve the current scarcity of raw resources and reduce environmental pollution caused by direct waste disposal,and is of great significance in realizing the concept of sustainable development and reducing the dependence on raw resources.Scientific prediction of the development ability of waste utilization industries is an important basis for guaranteeing the scale of existing waste utilization,and is a powerful guarantee for reducing the development of raw resources,reducing the environmental hazards caused by direct waste treatment,and realizing the concept of sustainable development and circular economy.To this end,this thesis conducts a relevant study on the development ability of waste utilization industry.The main research content and innovation points of this thesis are as follows.Firstly,a novel adaptive optimization multivariate grey forecasting model NGM（1,N,r）is proposed.The new model compensates the structural,mechanistic and parametric defects of the traditional multivariate grey prediction model GM（1,N）.And it has a more complete model structure and parameters,and is compatible with many existing univariate/multivariate grey prediction models through parameter transformation.Furthermore,the modeling capability is improved,the model compatibility capability is enhanced,and the model adaptation range is broadened.Secondly,the construction and measurement of waste utilization industry development ability index system.Based on Porter’s diamond model and PEST model,this thesis constructs a waste utilization industry development ability index system with four dimensions: demand for production,technological innovation,economic development level and ontology-related factors.Based on the Deng’s grey incidence analysis（GIA）model,this thesis measures the relevant indicators and identifies the key dimensions of production demand,economic development level and ontology-related factors that affect the development of the industry.Lastly,the prediction of waste utilization industry development ability.A prediction model of waste utilization industry development ability was constructed based on the measurement results with the NGM（1,N,r）model.The modeling results of NGM（1,N,r）model were compared with the GM（1,N,r）,GM（1,N）,OGM（1,N）,GM（1,1）,TDGM（1,1）,GM（1,1,r）,TDGM（1,1,r）models,and the model errors were respectively0.003%,12.707%,15.443%,5.341%,7.502%,model failure,5.603% and 5.488%.The modeling results show that NGM（1,N,r）has significant superiority over the rest of the comparison models.Subsequently,the future trend of waste utilization industry development ability was predicted based on the NGM（1,N,r）model.The prediction results show that the future development trend of the industry is good,showing a gradual upward trend.Meanwhile,the future development environment of the industry is analyzed based on the internal and external environment of the industry,and the reasonableness of the future prediction results of the new model is verified.Finally,based on the research results,targeted measures and suggestions for the future development of the industry are proposed to further enhance the scale of existing waste recovery.In turn,the reliance on raw resources is reduced to a greater extent and the environmental hazards caused by direct waste treatment are reduced,laying a good foundation for the realization of the concept of sustainable development and the development of circular economy.