Study On Forecasting Model For Domestic Vehicle Turbo Market

Turbocharge becomes a popular vehicles technology as it can upgrade engine power,save fuel and reduce harmful emission.So it is promoted by government policy and applied to more vehicles while end users gradually accept turbocharged vehicles.With the continued prosperity of the automobile market in recent years,automotive turbocharger market demand entered the period of rapid growth,which also led to increasingly fierce competition among the manufacturers.Therefore,determining the future market is important for the relevant enterprises to develop the corresponding strategies and operation plan.Accurate demand forecasting can help enterprises to plan a reasonable production capacity and production plan,to improve the utilization of production resources,to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises.Through analyzing the influence factors and changing rules of the market demand of automobile turbocharger,also the application of the traditional forecasting methods,the paper chooses the index smoothing method and regression analysis method to establish the mathematical model.Comparing the forecasting accuracy and the applicable conditions of the two models,finally the exponential smoothing model is chosen as the first choice for the turbocharge market demand forecasting.The selection of the exponential smoothing coefficient and the processing of the seasonal fluctuation factors are also discussed.With the help of the forecast value of the exponential smoothing forecasting model,it provides a meaningful scientific reference for the enterprises to judge the future market trend,and provides the objective basis for the enterprise management.