Urbanization,Economic Growth And Energy Consumption

Urbanization is a process in which people,capital,technology,information and other related elements come together and is an agglomeration economy.From the perspective of urban development,there is an inevitable connection between urbanization,economic growth and energy consumption: urbanization promotes economic growth,and economic growth stimulates energy consumption.As a pioneer city of reform and opening up,Guangzhou’s urban development has always been the focus of current attention.In 2016,Guangzhou’s urbanization rate reached 80%,entering the middle and late stages of urbanization,close to the level of developed countries.Guangzhou’s urbanization development has increasingly become a driving force for economic growth.A benign mechanism has been established between the two,and regional GDP is at the forefront of the nation’s cities.With the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,the economic growth is growing at a high speed,and the demand for energy consumption is also rising.Therefore,under such a macro background,it is particularly important to conduct an in-depth study on the relationship between urbanization,economic growth and energy consumption.It will not only provide new development directions and policy references for Guangzhou’s future sustainable development,but also for China.Other regions provide a reference.This paper takes the relationship between urbanization,economic growth and energy consumption as the main line of research.Firstly,the background and significance of this paper are clarified.Based on the comprehensive research results,the theoretical basis of urbanization and economic growth,urbanization and energy consumption,energy consumption and economic growth are summarized.Secondly,it comprehensively and systematically introduces the historical process and reality of urbanization,economic growth and energy consumption in Guangzhou.Then,based on the time series data of Guangzhou City from 1949 to 2016,the vector error correction model(VECM)is established,and the boundary cointegration test,error correction model,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition are used to measure the empirical analysis method.Carry out an empirical analysis of the two variables of urbanization,economic development and power consumption in Guangzhou.Finally,the urbanization,economic growth and power consumption of Guangzhou are placed under the same framework for dynamic relationship research,and the simultaneous equation model of the three variables is constructed.The endogenous properties of the three variables are calculated by using instrumental variables and two-stage least squares method.Make an effective estimate.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In the empirical analysis of the two variables,there is a two-way Granger causality between urbanization and economic growth.Economic growth accelerates the process of urbanization,while urbanization in turn drives economic growth.There is a long-term Granger causal relationship between economic growth and power consumption.As the economy continues to accelerate and the economy continues to expand,the demand for electricity consumption continues to increase during this period,that is,economic growth drives energy consumption.The three variables of urbanization,economic growth and power consumption also have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship in the same framework.(2)Through the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition,it is found that the impact of Guangzhou’s economic growth on urbanization level is greater than the impact of urbanization on economic growth;the impact of power consumption on economic growth is greater than that of economic growth.The impact of consumption.(3)Urbanization has a significant positive effect on economic growth.For every 1% increase in urbanization level,the economy grows at a rate of 2.4%.In the process of endogenous quantitative analysis of the three variables,urbanization was used as a tool variable,and it was concluded that urbanization promoted economic growth,and economic growth stimulated electricity consumption.Consistent with the conclusions of the dynamic measurement analysis of the three under the same framework.