Research On The Siting Of Rail Transit Station Via Dempster-Shafer Theory And Prospect Theory

With the rapid development of China’s economy and rising of the urban population,the urban transportation capacity is facing opportunities and great challenges.China’s rail transit construction is in full swing in recent 10 years.Reasonable site selection of urban rail transit station is directly related to the future economic development of a city.Since site selection decision is influenced by the site design scheme and cost,the convenience to travel of nearby residents,the site environment and many other factors,it needs to be considered to make evaluation and decision rationally and accurately.However,the performance of factors and the evaluation process usually show characteristic of fuzzy in the actual decision-making process,and decision makers are also affected by irrational thinking,which makes the decision of site selection of transit station more difficult.In this paper,research on the site selection decision of urban rail transit station is carried out by using evidence theory and prospect theory to construct the evidenceprospect theory framework.The site selection decision of Chang’an road station of Luoyang metro line 1 is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.Firstly,through the field research of rail transit construction in China and combined with the feasibility study report of rail transit construction and related literature,the factors that affect the site selection of urban rail transit station are determined.These factors include the surrounding conditions of stations,technical realization,station functional positioning,economic and social benefits.Secondly,the framework of evidence-prospect theory is constructed to determine the site location.The linguistic variables are used to evaluate the criteria of different alternative addresses.The evidence theory is used to describe the hesitation state when evaluating the criteria,and the aggregation weight factors of different schemes are determined according to the fusion rules.Considering the bounded rational behavior of decision makers,the prospect theory is used to describe the decision-maker’s real psychological state,and a new score function is proposed based on the probability weight function.Finally,an example is taken of the Chang’an road station of Luoyang metro line 1.The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the relative weight of various factors that affect the site selection of Chang’an road station,and then to determine the main factors of the site selection of Chang’an road station.The factors include the status around the station,the technical feasibility and the functional positioning of the station.In addition,the relative weight of the three factors mentioned above is determined.The optimal location of Chang’an road station is explored in combination with the evidence-prospect theoretical framework to verify the effectiveness of the framework.The research results show that the decision-making method combined with evidence theory and prospect theory is applicable to the site selection of urban rail transit station.The decision-making result made based on the evidence-prospect theory framework is more closer to the reality.The research has a wide range of theoretical significance and engineering application value.