Research On Group Decision Optimization Of Railway Route Scheme In Mountainous Area Based On The Theory Of Bounded Rational Behavior Decision-Making

Railway transportation,as an important part of the comprehensive transportation system,is the main artery of national economic development,but also an important support for the construction of modern economic system.Mountain railway route scheme decision making is a multi-index,multi-factor and multi-level and complex system engineering,involving politics,economy,culture,nature,society,national defense and other aspects of content,if the line selection inappropriate,geological hazards identification,prepare adequately for the disaster prevention and mitigation measures,so vulnerable to railway construction and operation of incalculable consequences.In traditional railway line scheme decision-making model,more scholars focused on qualitative index processing,empowerment method and decision method is improved to optimize combination,and assume that the model is built on the premise of decision makers completely rational,rarely considering the decision makers in the face of the uncertainty in the actual decision-making process of bounded rationality.Due to the limitations of thinking and cognition,decision-makers cannot obtain all the information of unbiased estimation and have rigorous logical reasoning ability,so decision-makers are bounded rational rather than completely rational in the actual decision-making process.Therefore,based on the cumulative prospect theory and regret theory,which are the two most influential theories of bounded rational behavior decision making,and combined with the multi-attribute group decision making method,this paper studies and constructs the group decision making model of mountain railway line scheme based on cumulative prospect theory and regret theory.The main research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows:1.The applicability of cumulative prospect theory and regret theory in mountain railway line scheme decision-making is discussed.First studied the mountains of the uncertainty of decision making in the railway line,and then listed the usual mountain railway route scheme decision-making method is commonly used in decision making,and finally combining with the characteristics of the uncertainty of mountain railway route scheme decision demonstrates the decision making of the railway line in the mountains with cumulative prospect theory and regret theory to make decisions is feasible and scientific and reasonable.2.Construct the index system suitable for mountain railway line scheme decision-making.First summarizes the decision to build index system,you need to follow the basic principles and method of some commonly used in the industry building,and then according to the basic principle of the integrated use of a variety of decision-making method of building the index system adopted a mountain railway line scheme decision-making index system of macro level and micro level indicators,and finally build a complete mountain railway route scheme decision-making index system.3.The group decision model of mountain railway route scheme based on cumulative prospect theory and regret theory is constructed.First USES the intuitionistic fuzzy sets to deal with the uncertainty of mountain railway route scheme decision-making,puts forward two improved entropy weight method to calculate weight index,and then based on cumulative prospect theory and regret theory,and introduces multi-attribute group decision-making,finally this study based on cumulative prospect theory and regret theory mountain railway route scheme of group decision-making model.4.Combined with engineering instance verified based on cumulative prospect theory and regret theory of mountain railway route scheme decision model is scientific and effective,and has carried on the sensitivity to two decision theory and the analysis of advantages and disadvantages,gives two selection decision theory are proposed,for the future similar limited rational behavior decision work provides the certain reference value.