Research On Commuting Characteristics Of Special Education Pupils Based On MNL Model And Empirical Sensitivity

Based on the special education school pupils(Special education pupils)group as the main research object,research and analysis its means of travel to and from school choice behavior characteristics of special-education classes students due to its physical defects,belong to the vulnerable groups in society,but also belong to the vulnerable groups in traffic activities of domestic study of special-education classes students way is almost zero,so the choice mode of special education pupils travel to and from school study has important significance.Based on the pupils of Beijing commuter survey data as sample,for special-education pupils and general education pupils travel characters were studied on the survey data to and from school after simple treatment,the sample is divided into special-education pupils travel samples and general education pupils travel samples,and then classify the sample variables,and divides into the way to travel on foot bicycle electric bicycle public transport and cars Respectively for two classes of samples descriptive statistical analysis and correlation analysis,and then establish a special education pupils commute mode selection of MNL model and General education pupils commute MNL model of mode selection,parameter estimation and model interpretation,and use LL AIC AICC and Mc Fadden R~2sensitivity analysis to evaluate model after introducing experience,research for any number of variables change,special education pupils and general education pupils mode of the change of the choice of the final proposed for special education pupils and general education pupils trip of structure optimization measures.According to the research,the MNL model fitting results of the two types of students’travel mode selection are good.When children go to and from school alone,special-education students generally choose walking or public transportation,while ordinary students choose more diversified choices.When the distance increases not much,the probability of both groups of students choosing to travel by bicycle will increase,while when the distance increases too much,they are more inclined to choose public transport and car.For students with different disability types,deaf-mute students are more likely to choose walking bicycles and electric bicycles and public transportation,while mentally disabled students and blind students are relatively lower,and blind students are almost not likely to choose bicycles and electric bicycles for travel.