| With the deepening of power system reform,the power transmission-distribution pricing system of the first regulatory cycle has been basically established in China.On March 15,2015.the state council issued the "opinions on further deepening the reform of the power system",putting forward the general idea of electricity price reform of "opening up the middle and focusing on both ends",and clarifying the principle and direction of transmission-distribution price reform.The transmission-distribution price reform is the core part of a new round of power system reform.Its essence is to strip the pricing power of power grid companies,and break the monopoly position of power grid companies on both sides of the purchase and sale.Under the reform of transmission-distribution price,the profit model of power grid enterprises has changed fundamentally,from the previous extensive profit model of "price difference of purchase and sale multiplied by electricity sold" to the refined profit model of "permitted cost plus reasonable profit" regulated by the government,which has a great impact on the profit space of power grid companies.Since the reform of transmission-distribution price has changed the supervision mode of reasonable income and transmission and distribution cost of power grid,the investment planning of power grid companies should be linked to the level of electricity price and profitability,so as to ensure the maximization of investment into effective assets,and scientifically and rationally calculate the scale of power grid investment.Therefore,under the new situation,it is necessary to study the measurement method of investment scale of power grid companies and put forward the theoretical system of portfolio optimization method for power grid investment with strong adaptability.Firstly,this paper analyzes the influence of transmission-distribution price reform on the investment returns of power grid companies,and studies the income model and investment scale of power grid companies under the reform of transmission-distribution price.Secondly,the load under different voltage levels is predicted,and the total new capacity demand of the power grid is measured,so as to determine the lower limit of investment for the power grid company.Analyze the constituent elements of the grid company’s investment capacity,build a grid company’s internal fund calculation model and external fund calculation model,and measure the grid company’s investment capacity to determine the grid enterprise company ceiling.Thirdly,under the transmission-distribution price reform,determine effective asset conversion coefficients for new construction,expansion,and technological transformation projects based on cost-benefit analysis methods.introduce the effective asset credit ratio correction factor based on regional factors,and design the effective asset credit ratio for each project type in different regions.Finally,based on the current background of the transmission-distribution price reform,with the goal of maximizing the total revenue of the grid companie within a three-year transmission-distribution price supervision cycle,under the constraints of new investment requirements.investment capacity,fluctuations in transmission-distribution price and balanced account returns,construct investment portfolio optimization models for the grid company in different regions,different voltage levels and different project types.On the basis of the above model analysis,a provincial grid was selected for example calculation,the validity of the model was verified,and a reasonable portfolio optimization scheme was proposed.Through the study of this paper,the problems related to grid investment decision-making faced by grid companies are analyzed,and a portfolio optimization model based on the current power transmission-distribution price reform is proposed to meet the complex investment decisions of grid companies at this stage.The research results in this paper have enriched the investment portfolio optimization method system of power grid company and provided reference for power grid company investment work. |
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