Research On The Key Influencing Factors Of Power Grid Investment And Project Portfolio Optimization

The power grid engineering investment projects play a important role in our country’s power industry.They are not only closely related to people’s daily activities,but also have a lot to do with the stable development of the national economy.With the State Grid Corporation’s strategic goal of comprehensively building an internationally leading world-class energy Internet company with Chinese characteristics,as well as the continuous advancement of a series of national policies such as power system reform and central enterprise investment supervision,there is an urgent need for power grid companies to improve the level of power grid investment decision-making.Ensure the effectiveness and compliance of the company’s grid investments,and avoid inefficient and ineffective investments.The power grid investment is a complex investment decision-making process,involving many aspects and many uncertain factors.This paper uses the PESTR analysis model to select external indicators that affect the development of the power grid from five perspectives of politics,economy,society,technology,and resources,and then select the internal driving indicators that affect the development of the power grid from the aspects of power grid reliability,grid structure,and network loss.Use the explanatory structure model to layer the indicators,and according to the mutual influence relationship between the indicators,get the influence path of each indicator.Then the gray correlation analysis was used to find the degree of correlation between each indicator and grid investment,select the index with a strong correlation as the key indicator,and perform multiple linear regression based on the key indicator to predict the scale of grid investment.Cross-check shows that the error is relatively large.Therefore,the model has certain robustness in predicting the scale of power grid investment,and can be used to assist in predicting the scale of power grid investment.Finally,constructed a comprehensive utility evaluation index system for grid investment from the dimensions of project importance,technology,economy,social environment and project maturity,weigh the impact of qualitative and quantitative factors,and establish a comprehensive utility evaluation model for grid investment projects based on prospect theory Based on the comprehensive utility,a project portfolio optimization model that satisfies mandatory constraints such as investment capacity,power grid reliability,capacity-to-load ratio,and regional development is established,which can help grid companies make investment decisions.